Markets Set for Marginally Lower Open as Iran-Israel Ceasefire Remains Fragile

Mumbai, June 9: Domestic equity markets are set for a cautious, marginally lower open on Tuesday, with Gift Nifty futures trading in the red early morning, pointing to a flat-to-weak start for the Nifty 50 when the markets open at 9:15 am. The muted signal comes even as Iran and Israel announced a mutual halt to direct strikes late Monday following an appeal by US President Donald Trump, offering some relief after a weekend of renewed hostilities that had roiled global markets. While the ceasefire pause has eased the most acute fears of an all-out escalation, markets remain on edge as Tehran has warned it will resume attacks if Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon continue — leaving the geopolitical risk premium firmly in place. 

Gift Nifty 

Gift Nifty futures for the near-month June 30, 2026 contract were trading at 23,137.50, down 36.00 points or 0.16%, as of 07:39 am on June 9, 2026. The contract is trading marginally above Monday’s NSE Nifty 50 closing level of 23,123.00, but its negative reading signals that the cash market is likely to open in the red, with sentiment still weighed down by unresolved Middle East tensions and elevated crude oil prices. A sustained trade below the 23,150 zone in early cash market trade would confirm the cautious tone the futures are currently reflecting. 

Iran-Israel: Ceasefire Pause, But Tensions Linger 

Iran and Israel both announced on Monday that they had halted direct strikes on each other following a personal appeal from US President Donald Trump, who urged both sides to immediately stop shooting and declared that final peace negotiations were “proceeding.” Israel had struck Iranian air defence systems and a petrochemical plant used for ballistic missile production, after which Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retaliated with a strike targeting a similar facility in Haifa — though no deaths were reported by authorities on either side. Tehran, however, warned it would resume hostilities if Israel continued to strike Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, keeping the ceasefire’s durability in serious doubt. Trump, in an interview published Monday, told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that if he returned to war with Iran, he might find himself “on his own very soon” — a pointed signal of Washington’s limits on unconditional Israeli military backing. 

Asian Markets on Tuesday Morning 

Asian markets were trading on a mixed note on Tuesday morning, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 bucking the regional trend to rise 0.99% to 64,659.10 and China’s Shanghai Composite edging up 0.12% to 3,964.08, as both markets drew partial relief from the Iran-Israel ceasefire announcement. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.17% to 24,615.88, while Malaysia’s KLCI fell 1.05% to 1,675.60 and Vietnam’s HNX 30 declined 1.18% to 509.87, reflecting lingering caution across Southeast Asian bourses. Indonesia’s JSX Composite was the region’s sharpest decliner, falling 4.52% to 5,342.14, while Pakistan’s KSE 100 shed 0.89% to 1,68,953.71 and Thailand’s SET Index dropped 1.32% to 1,561.68. Australia’s S&P ASX All Ordinaries fell 0.59% to 8,803.30, rounding out a broadly cautious regional picture where the relief from the ceasefire pause was offset by uncertainty over whether hostilities would resume. 

Monday Session of US Markets  

US markets ended Monday’s session on a split note, with technology stocks helping the Nasdaq Composite gain 0.86% to close at 25,929.66 and the S&P 500 rising 0.30% to 7,405.73, as the Iran-Israel ceasefire news lifted risk appetite in the latter part of the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, slipped 0.16% to 50,786.01 and the NYSE Composite edged down 0.14% to 23,224.20, reflecting lingering caution among blue-chip and value investors even as growth stocks recovered. The divergence between a rising Nasdaq and a declining Dow underscored a market that remains divided on whether the geopolitical risk premium is fading or merely pausing. 

Oil Prices 

Crude oil prices edged marginally higher in early Tuesday trade, with Brent crude futures rising 13 cents or 0.14% to $94.38 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate up 11 cents or 0.12% at $91.41 a barrel as of 0001 GMT, as the Iran-Israel ceasefire left the door open to a resumption of hostilities. Prices had surged as much as 5% in Monday’s session after Israel’s renewed Beirut strikes and Iranian retaliatory missile fire raised fresh fears over the Strait of Hormuz, before paring gains after Iran’s armed forces announced the end of military operations against Israel. Analysts cautioned that the market was pricing in continued uncertainty rather than a lasting resolution, with the ceasefire’s fragility — particularly Iran’s warning that it would re-engage if Hezbollah strikes continued — keeping the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices. 

Indian Markets: Monday Close 

Indian benchmark indices ended sharply lower on Monday, with the BSE Sensex falling 719.08 points or 0.97% to close at 73,524.26 and the NSE Nifty 50 declining 243.70 points or 1.04% to settle at 23,123.00, dragged down by surging crude oil prices, weak global cues and fears of a more hawkish US Federal Reserve. The selloff was broad-based, with market breadth decisively negative — 3,007 stocks declined against only 1,172 advances on the NSE — as rising energy costs heightened concerns about inflation and the impact on corporate margins across sectors. IT, metals, realty and auto bore the sharpest sectoral losses during the session, even as pharma and select PSU banks managed to hold their ground amid the widespread risk aversion. 

Source

• nseindia.com