Weekly Bullion Review: Gold Falls 0.5% to $4,177.82 as Hot US CPI Revives Fed Rate Hike Bets; Silver Tumbles 5.3% Before Friday Rebound

Mumbai, 17 Oct: Gold and silver prices witnessed divergent yet turbulent trajectories during the week ended 16 October 2026, with the yellow metal slipping modestly while silver endured one of its most volatile weekly corrections of the autumn season.

Spot gold closed the week at $4,177.82 per ounce on Friday, down 0.5% for the week, while spot silver settled at $57.86 per ounce, having plunged 5.3% between 12 and 16 October before staging a Friday rebound. In the Indian domestic market, 24-carat gold was quoted at ₹1,46,426 per 10 grams, up 0.3% on Friday, while silver surged 1.2% to ₹2,10,918 per kilogram.

The week’s defining event was the release of US September CPI data on Wednesday, 14 October, which showed inflation accelerating to 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 3.6% and surpassing August’s reading of 3.4%.

US CPI Surprise at 3.7% Triggers Sharpest Single-Day Gold and Silver Sell-Off

The most consequential development of the week occurred on Wednesday, 14 October, when the US Labour Department released September consumer price inflation data showing headline CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month — the largest monthly increase in five months. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, climbed to 2.6% year-on-year, against forecasts of 2.5% and August’s 2.4%.

The energy component surged 5.2%, with gasoline prices jumping 9.1% and accounting for over half of the monthly increase in all items. Following the data release, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at its 27-28 October meeting jumped from 22% to 43.7%, according to CME FedWatch data, while the probability of the Fed holding rates steady dropped from 78% to 56%.

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The market reaction was immediate and severe. International gold fell 1.31% to $4,122.05 per ounce, while silver plummeted 4.18% to $57.035 per ounce on 14 October. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), December gold futures plunged ₹2,084 or 1.50% to ₹1,46,366 per 10 grams, while silver for December delivery crashed approximately ₹7,700 or 3.50% to ₹2,11,503 per kilogram.

The sell-off was compounded by a stronger US dollar, which made dollar-denominated bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies, and by rising Treasury yields that reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets.

Gold Rebounds 0.2% on Softer Dollar and Yield Drop as October Hike Bets Moderate

Thursday, 15 October, brought a sharp reversal in sentiment. Gold rebounded over 1% as the dollar weakened and Treasury yields declined, with October Fed hike bets moderating. On the MCX, December gold futures rose ₹1,748 or 1.18% to ₹1,47,596 per 10 grams, while silver climbed ₹1,387 or 0.67% to ₹2,09,725 per kilogram. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at an IMF event, voiced optimism about US economic strength but gave no indication of whether further rate hikes would be needed. Traders largely expected the Fed to hold rates steady in October while pricing in a 91% probability of a rate hike in December.

PPI Surges 1.3% in September, Broadening Inflation Beyond Energy Products

Data released on Thursday, 15 October, showed US producer prices increased by the most in four-and-a-half years, rising 1.3% in September on a month-on-month basis. This followed the hotter-than-expected consumer price report and indicated that inflationary pressures were broadening beyond energy-related products.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee described the week’s inflation data as “discouraging,” while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated the Fed might need to hike rates more aggressively if there were a notable deterioration in public inflation expectations. Gold’s range during the week was defined by resistance at $4,221 per ounce and support at $4,075 per ounce, with the bottom of the range being tested earlier in the week.

Silver Plunges 5.3% Weekly with 8.4% Trading Range Before Friday Rebound

Silver emerged as the week’s most volatile precious metal. The metal opened the week at approximately €1,738 per gram (in euro terms) and plunged to a low of €1,604 per gram on Thursday, 15 October, before rebounding to €1,655 per gram by Friday morning.

The weekly trading amplitude reached 8.4% between the high and low, compared with a much-contained 0.8% weekly decline for gold in euro terms. On Friday, 16 October, spot silver rose 0.7% to $57.86 per ounce, drawing support from safe-haven demand amid weaker equities and falling US bond yields.

Also Read: How to Invest in Silver: 6 Best Ways (2026) 

The metal’s dual role as both a monetary asset and an industrial commodity — consumed heavily by the photovoltaic and electronics sectors — amplified its movements throughout the week.

Rupee Strength and MCX Gold Settle at ₹1.48 Lakh as Dollar Heads for First Weekly Fall in Five Weeks

The US dollar headed for its first weekly fall in five weeks, making greenback-priced bullion more affordable for overseas buyers. In the Indian domestic market, the rupee’s relative stability cushioned some of the impact of falling international prices. On the MCX, December gold futures settled around ₹1.48 lakh per 10 grams on Friday, 16 October, gaining ₹1,702 or 1.17% during the session, while silver futures rose 1.30% to ₹2.13 lakh per kilogram. MCX Gold Petal for 30 October delivery was quoted at ₹14,939 per gram, up ₹52 or 0.35%. Open interest in MCX gold stood at approximately 1,85,854 contracts, reflecting active participation.

24K Gold Steady at ₹1,47,810 per 10 Grams Across Mumbai and Delhi on October 16

In the physical retail market, 24-carat gold was quoted at ₹1,47,810 per 10 grams in Mumbai and ₹1,47,450 per 10 grams in Delhi on Friday, 16 October. 22-carat gold stood at ₹1,35,245 per 10 grams in Mumbai and ₹1,35,053 per 10 grams in Delhi.

The India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) quoted silver 999 at ₹2,10,312 per kilogram, up ₹3,214 or approximately 1.55% from the previous benchmark. Retail jewellery prices at major brands including Tanishq, Malabar Gold & Diamonds, Joyalukkas and Kalyan Jewellers remained unchanged on 16 October, with Tanishq’s 22-carat jewellery priced at ₹13,555 per gram across New Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata and Bengaluru.

Also Read: How to Invest in Gold for Beginners: Simple Start Guide 

City-wise gold prices on 16 October showed Delhi at ₹14,296 per gram for 24-carat gold, Mumbai at ₹14,243 per gram, and Kolkata at ₹14,348 per gram. For 22-carat gold, Delhi quoted ₹13,615 per gram, Mumbai ₹13,565 per gram, and Kolkata ₹13,665 per gram. Chennai’s 22-carat gold stood at ₹13,565 per gram.

These prices include GST and local dealer premiums but exclude making charges and jewellery design costs. Price differences between cities arise from varying local taxes, dealer premiums, transportation costs and regional demand conditions, with Delhi typically commanding higher rates due to its large jewellery market and transportation costs.

Gold ETFs Face Bulk Subscription Suspension as Mutual Funds Curb Inflows

Late on Thursday, 15 October, several large Indian mutual funds issued public notices suspending bulk subscriptions to gold exchange-traded funds just ahead of the festive season when investor demand typically rises. The restrictions appeared aimed at moderating investment-driven gold demand amid concerns over gold imports and pressure on the rupee.

Also Read: How to Invest in Gold Online 

Existing holdings continued to track domestic gold prices, and the curbs did not necessarily indicate weaker investor sentiment. The suspension of bulk subscriptions represented a regulatory and operational response to elevated gold import levels rather than a reflection of diminished investor interest in the yellow metal.

Gold-Silver Ratio Widens to 72.2 as Silver Underperforms Gold by 4.8 Percentage Points

The gold-silver ratio, calculated as the gold price divided by the silver price, stood at approximately 72.2 at the end of the week, compared with 69.2 at the start of the week. The ratio widened because gold declined 0.5% for the week while silver plunged 5.3%, meaning silver significantly underperformed gold. The ratio’s movement was driven by silver’s dual nature as an industrial commodity — weakness in global manufacturing expectations and profit-booking in the metal’s crowded investment positions magnified its decline beyond that of gold. On a weekly basis, the ratio change reflected silver’s underperformance by approximately 4.8 percentage points relative to gold, underscoring the industrial metal’s heightened sensitivity to shifts in global growth sentiment and monetary policy expectations.

The week demonstrated gold’s resilience relative to silver, with the yellow metal declining a modest 0.5% against silver’s 5.3% plunge as hot US inflation data revived Fed rate hike expectations. The gold-silver ratio widened to 72.2, reflecting silver’s industrial-metal vulnerabilities. Investors should monitor the 27-28 October Fed meeting, US PPI data, and rupee-dollar movements, as these will determine near-term price trajectories for both precious metals.