HSL Prime Research Commodity Daily Report: 01 October 2026

Global Market Round Up

Gold prices are hovering around $4,150 an ounce after surrendering the previous session’s gains, as elevated crude oil prices and Treasury yields outweighed support from softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data. The U.S. PCE price index rose 0.3% in August, below expectations for a 0.4% increase, while core PCE increased 0.2%, compared with forecasts for a 0.3% gain. On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation stood at 3.4%, below the expected 3.7%. The softer inflation readings have eased near-term rate-hike expectations, with markets lowering the implied probability of an October Fed hike to around 38% from 51% before the PCE release. This has provided some support to bullion and limited the downside.

However, the recovery remains constrained by elevated Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. The dollar index strengthened to around 101.5, while Treasury yields climbed to multi-year highs amid concerns that persistent energy-driven inflation could keep monetary policy tighter for longer. The 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields were around 5.3% and 5.64%, respectively, with both reaching their highest levels since 2002. Elevated yields continue to increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Market focus now turns to the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, weekly jobless claims and comments from Federal Reserve officials, which could influence the dollar, Treasury yields and rate expectations. Stronger-than-expected economic data or hawkish Fed commentary could revive expectations for tighter monetary policy and limit gold’s recovery.

Crude oil prices steadied above $90 a barrel on Thursday after rising in the previous session, as improving Middle East supply flows offset uncertainty over U.S.-Iran negotiations. Saudi Arabia has restored around half of the capacity of its East-West pipeline, while flows through the Strait of Hormuz have risen to around 13.2 million barrels per day, signalling a gradual recovery in regional supplies.

However, the outlook remains uncertain without a lasting agreement to end the conflict. Iranian officials said Tehran had received a U.S. proposal regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, keeping diplomatic developments in focus.

Natural gas prices remain below $3 ahead of the EIA storage report, with markets expecting a 63 Bcf injection versus 53 Bcf previously.