HSL Prime Research Commodity Daily Report: 01 September 2026

Global Market Round Up

Gold remained under pressure near $4,450 an ounce on Tuesday, trading close to a two-week low as markets increasingly positioned for tighter U.S. monetary policy. A combination of a strengthening energy prices and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments has strengthened expectations of a rate increase at the upcoming Fed meeting.

The renewed escalation around the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices higher for a second consecutive session, raising concerns that higher energy costs could add to inflationary pressures. This, in turn, has reinforced the case for the Fed to maintain a restrictive policy stance, creating a less favourable environment for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Warsh further added to the pressure after indicating that the Fed still has “work to do” unless there is clearer evidence of inflation returning toward its 2% target. Markets have subsequently increased the probability of a September rate hike to more than 65%, compared with around 36% before his remarks.

Despite the recent weakness, gold’s broader performance remains strong. The metal gained roughly 10% in August, supported by renewed concerns surrounding U.S. debt and the dollar after the Treasury announced plans to expand liquidity-support buybacks of longer-dated bonds. This has continued to underpin the broader debasement trade and could help limit the downside over the medium term.

In the short term, gold is expected to consolidate within the $4,380–$4,550 range, with a decisive breakout on either side likely to determine the next directional move. Markets are also preparing for a busy economic calendar, with U.S. manufacturing and services data due later today, followed by the closely watched August jobs report on Friday.

Crude oil climbed above $86 per barrel on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session as renewed Middle East tensions raised concerns over potential disruptions to regional energy supplies. Meanwhile, refinery strikes in Russia have added to global energy-market tightness, constraining refining capacity and pushing refined-product margins to fresh highs, providing additional support to crude prices.

Natural gas prices remain supported by forecasts for triple-digit temperatures across parts of the U.S. over the coming week, which are expected to boost electricity demand for air conditioning and increase power-sector gas consumption.