HSL Prime Research Commodity Daily Report 04 September 2026

Global Market Round Up

Precious metals consolidated near the upper end of their recent range on Friday after advancing for two consecutive sessions, supported by a softer U.S. dollar and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials that cooled expectations for a September rate hike. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would favor keeping interest rates unchanged if price pressures continue to ease, prompting markets to scale back the probability of a September hike to around 50% from 63% a day earlier. The dollar and Treasury yields fell sharply following his remarks, providing further support to bullion.

The rebound highlights gold’s sensitivity to shifts in U.S. monetary-policy expectations. Market attention now turns to today’s U.S. payrolls report and next week’s inflation data for further clues on the Fed’s policy outlook. Weaker-than-expected data could extend the dollar’s decline and support gold, while stronger figures or renewed hawkish signals from the Fed could revive rate-hike expectations and weigh on precious metals.

Crude oil prices remained elevated on Friday, with WTI futures climbing above $92 per barrel and heading for a weekly gain of around 10%, supported by renewed hostilities in the Middle East and growing uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. carried out fresh strikes against Iran this week following roughly a month of relative calm, prompting Tehran to retaliate by targeting U.S. bases in the region and vessels passing through Hormuz.

Shipping activity through the Strait has also weakened, with six commodity vessels transiting on Wednesday, down from 11 on Tuesday and compared with a 10-day average of nearly 13. Damage to key infrastructure in the Middle East and Russia, combined with limited spare capacity elsewhere, is expected to keep global fuel markets tight into next year. Meanwhile, U.S. diesel prices reached their highest level since mid-2022, while European inventories remain well below seasonal norms, adding to the bullish outlook for refined fuel markets.

Natural gas futures moved lower after testing resistance near $3 per mmbtu. Prices retreated despite the EIA’s weekly storage report showing a third consecutive below-average inventory build, with a 30 Bcf injection coming in line with market expectations. The lack of a bullish surprise in the storage data prompted some profit-taking near resistance and weighed on prices.