HSL Prime Research Commodity Weekly Report: 13 July 2026

The market’s primary focus remained on the renewed escalation between the United States and Iran. The U.S. carried out additional airstrikes on Iranian military facilities, including air defense systems, missile sites, and strategic infrastructure, following Iranian attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by launching missiles and drones at U.S.-linked facilities across the Gulf region, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and a U.S.-operated military base in Jordan. While geopolitical uncertainty typically boosts demand for safe-haven assets, the renewed conflict also revived concerns that higher energy prices could fuel inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer. This combination limited gains in precious metals while supporting the U.S. dollar.

From a technical perspective, gold continues to face near-term pressure after failing to sustain gains above the $4,200 resistance area and its 20-day moving average. The metal has now struggled to post consecutive weekly gains since mid-April, indicating that the broader corrective trend remains intact. Immediate support is seen near $4,022, followed by the psychologically important $4,000 level. A decisive break below this zone could expose the year-to-date low near $3,946, while stronger Fibonacci support is located around $3,887. On the upside, a sustained move above $4,200 would be required to improve the short-term technical outlook.

Crude oil prices rebounded during the week as renewed military action between the United States and Iran revived concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East. Industrial metals generally closed higher despite the stronger U.S. dollar, with zinc, aluminium, and copper posting weekly gains on optimism surrounding global industrial activity.

Markets enter a data-heavy week, with the U.S. CPI report, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony, retail sales, and speeches from several Fed officials expected to shape interest-rate expectations. Stronger-than-expected inflation could support the U.S. dollar and weigh on precious metals, while softer economic data may provide relief. Meanwhile, developments in the U.S.–Iran conflict are likely to remain a key driver for crude oil and broader market sentiment.

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