The Prime Weekly: 13 June 2026

The U.S. stock market was modestly higher during the week as investors balanced ongoing technological enthusiasm against lingering macroeconomic anxieties.

The S&P 500 finished more than 1% higher, and the NASDAQ added nearly 2% as the indexes recorded their second consecutive positive week. Stocks have largely alternated between modest gains and losses since early June as investors assess AI-related spending, the Middle East conflict, and elevated oil prices.

Prices of U.S. government bonds fell for the second week in a row, sending yields to their highest levels since mid-May amid persistent concerns about inflation and interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield finished the week at 4.56%, up from 4.37% a couple of weeks earlier. The 30-year Treasury ended at 5.06%, up from 4.87% two weeks earlier.

Indian equities snapped a four-week winning streak as geopolitical tensions in West Asia flared up once again. The market opened last week on a strong note but suffered a sharp mid-week correction as global tensions intensified, before staging a partial recovery toward the close. The spike in crude oil prices, driven by tensions in the Middle East, was the primary headwind, weighing on the Rupee and stoking inflation concerns.

The U.S. and Iran have resumed hostilities in the Gulf, escalating tensions and disrupting regional shipping and energy routes.

With macro and geopolitical noise dominating recent sessions, market focus now shifts to earnings season, where narratives get tested against actual numbers.

Earnings season in the USA is a key test of whether AI-driven capex and margins can justify stretched valuations amid a shifting Fed policy backdrop under new Chairman Kevin Warsh.

Indian corporates have largely absorbed the worst of the global headwinds, and the outlook from here hinges on two swing factors: rural demand and crude-linked volatility.

If monsoon-related sowing delays don’t materially dent rural income and consumption trends, and crude prices stay range-bound rather than spiking again, earnings should see a gradual pickup through the rest of FY27.

Nifty earnings growth is expected at around 10-12% in Q1FY27, slightly lower than the full-year projection of 14-15%, while ex-Oil & Gas earnings may grow 12-13%. Metals, consumer durables, EMS, NBFC, and Telecom are expected to witness strong growth in Q1FY27, while Real Estate, Chemicals, Pharma, Auto, and Cement may report muted earnings growth.

Nifty is consolidating, with a move above 24530 likely to revive bullish momentum. Traders can hold longs with a stop-loss at 23800; a breakout above 24530 could extend the rally toward 24845.

Broader markets are outperforming the benchmark, favouring a more bullish stance on midcap, smallcap, and microcap stocks, while financials and consumer durables look relatively strong.