HSL Prime Research Commodity Weekly Report: 19 October 2026

Global Market Round Up

Precious metals were largely steady on Friday but remained lower for the week, with spot gold ending down around 0.7% and silver falling more than 6%. The weekly decline was driven primarily by hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which revived concerns over persistent price pressures and the possibility of a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy stance. Rising crude oil prices also added to inflation concerns by increasing the risk of higher energy costs.

The inflation data offset support from a pullback in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. While gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets by increasing the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

U.S. producer prices rose at their fastest pace in four-and-a-half years in September, following Wednesday’s consumer inflation report, which showed price pressures accelerating during the month. The stronger inflation readings prompted traders to increase bets on further Fed rate hikes.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking on Friday, expressed confidence in the strength of the U.S. economy but offered little guidance on the future path of interest rates. Meanwhile, concerns over higher interest rates and debt-fuelled investment in the artificial-intelligence sector triggered a selloff in technology and semiconductor stocks, prompting investors to shift towards safer assets.

Gold may remain vulnerable this week if crude oil prices stay elevated, while a rebound in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields could add further pressure. Technically, $4,050–$4,000 is a strong support zone, while silver remains weak below $55. Conversely, softer oil prices and continued easing in the dollar and yields could trigger bargain buying and support a recovery in precious metals.

Crude oil prices surged more than 6% last week, with crude posting a 1-month high amid tightening supply and strong demand for fuel from the shipping industry. Producers are facing higher freight rates and risk premiums to transport cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping uncertainty over future regional supply elevated. The conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine’s renewed targeting of Russian refineries fuels supply concerns. “The main source of international uncertainty remains the security of energy transportation in the Middle East.” Prices raced to their highs Friday afternoon after US lawmakers introduced a bill to block President Trump’s deal with Russia to release several hundred million barrels of diesel fuel.

The upcoming week will center on oil prices, the US dollar, treasuries, and geopolitical developments, which are the primary near-term drivers for precious metals. Meanwhile, China’s growth data and US economic releases could influence the direction of industrial metals.