India VIX Rises 7.92% in Opening Trade as US-Iran Tensions and Oil Prices Lift Market Volatility

Mumbai, July 13: India VIX, India’s volatility index, opened the week on a stronger note, rising 7.92% to 13.14 as of 10:10 IST, after closing at 12.25 in the previous session.  

The early jump in the volatility gauge reflects heightened caution at the start of the trading session as global geopolitical developments, rising crude oil prices, inflation concerns and a busy week of economic data releases and corporate earnings kept market participants focused on potential near-term risks.  

During the opening session, India VIX touched an intraday high of 13.52, with the day’s range standing between 9.47 and 13.52. 

India VIX At 13.14 as Sensex Drops Over 700 Points in Early Trade 

The increase in India VIX accompanied a weak opening for Indian equities. The BSE Sensex declined by more than 700 points, touching an intraday low of 76,857, while the Nifty 50 fell 207 points to test the 24,000 level during morning trade. Both benchmark indices were down by nearly 1% in the opening session.  

The decline also reduced the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies to approximately ₹479 lakh crore, erasing more than ₹2 lakh crore in investor wealth. Selling pressure remained broad-based, with all 16 major sectoral indices trading lower, while broader mid-cap and small-cap indices each declined by around 0.6%. 

US-Iran Conflict and Strait of Hormuz Concerns Push Volatility Higher 

Fresh geopolitical developments over the weekend emerged as one of the primary factors behind the increase in market volatility. The United States and Iran reportedly exchanged further missile and drone strikes, extending regional tensions. Reports also indicated renewed concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically important global oil shipping route.  

The possibility of prolonged disruption to energy supplies added uncertainty across global financial markets and contributed to higher implied market volatility during Monday’s opening trade. 

Brent Crude Nears $80 As Oil Rally Adds Inflation Pressure 

Crude oil prices strengthened sharply alongside geopolitical developments. Brent crude futures rose more than 4%, increasing by $3.10 or 4.08% to $79.11 per barrel during early trade, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $2.95, or 4.11%, to $74.36 per barrel.  

The advance brought Brent crude close to the $80 per barrel mark. Rising energy prices renewed concerns over inflation and input costs, particularly for oil-importing economies such as India, which imports nearly 85% of its crude oil requirements. 

Rupee Opens 37 Paise Lower as Global Uncertainty Persists 

The Indian rupee also weakened at the start of the trading session, opening 37 paise lower at 95.70 against the US dollar compared with the previous close of 95.33. The softer domestic currency, combined with higher crude oil prices, added to concerns over India’s import costs.  

At the same time, the US dollar strengthened against several major global currencies as investors assessed the implications of elevated geopolitical risks and higher inflation expectations. 

Inflation Data and Q1 Earnings Keep Volatility Elevated 

Apart from geopolitical developments, market participants remained focused on a series of scheduled domestic and global events expected during the week. These include the release of India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, US CPI inflation data, the beginning of the Q1 FY27 corporate earnings season, movements in Brent crude oil prices, and further developments in the Middle East.  

Analysts said the clustering of these events has led to increased demand for options protection, contributing to the rebound in India VIX during the opening session rather than indicating widespread market panic. 

Opening Rebound Follows Last Week’s Sharp Volatility Spike 

Monday’s rise comes after India VIX declined by more than 8% on 10 July, having previously witnessed one of its strongest intraday moves this month. On 8 July, the volatility index surged by nearly 30%, reaching around 15.15, while the Sensex fell approximately 1,677 points and the Nifty recorded one of its sharpest declines in recent weeks.  

That spike was driven by geopolitical tensions, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, increased institutional hedging activity and weak global market sentiment. Although volatility eased towards the end of last week, Monday’s opening rebound indicates that markets continue to closely monitor evolving global developments. 

July Seasonality Still Points to Historically Weak Performance 

Despite the latest recovery, long-term seasonal trends remain unchanged. Historical data shows that India VIX has delivered negative returns in 15 out of the last 18 Julys. The highest positive July gain stands at 7.39% recorded in 2011, while the steepest July decline was 24.22% in 2022. The average positive July return is 4.47%, whereas the average negative return is 10.84%, resulting in an overall average July change of -8.29%. Technically, the index continues to carry a Neutral trend rating, with the day’s Classic Pivot Point at 12.58, resistance levels at 13.03, 13.82 and 14.27, and support levels at 11.79, 11.34 and 10.55. 

India VIX opened higher on 13 July 2026, reflecting increased caution amid renewed geopolitical tensions, higher crude oil prices and a week packed with inflation data and first-quarter earnings announcements. The volatility index remains well below its 52-week high of 28.90, but continues to be closely monitored as global and domestic developments unfold during the trading week. 

Source 

• https://www.nseindia.com/products-services/indices-india-vix