Mumbai, July 4: Indian benchmark equity indices extended their winning streak to a fourth consecutive week, driven by softer crude oil prices, easing geopolitical tensions, and growing expectations of a more accommodative global interest-rate environment following weaker-than-expected US labour market data.

The Sensex advanced 0.86% for the week to close at 77,763.91, while the Nifty 50 rose 0.89% to settle at 24,270.85. Over the past three sessions alone, the Sensex and the Nifty gained 1.68% and 1.70%, respectively.

The broader market also participated in the rally, with the BSE MidCap index gaining 0.80% and the BSE SmallCap index surging 1.51% during the week. Investors’ wealth increased by ₹5.08 lakh crore, with the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies rising to ₹480.25 lakh crore.

Sensex and Nifty Hit Two-Month Highs as IT Stocks Lead the Charge on Friday

Friday, July 3, saw the benchmarks extend gains for the third consecutive session, with the Sensex rising 261.79 points, or 0.34%, to close at 77,763.91, while the Nifty 50 gained 95.15 points, or 0.39%, to settle at 24,270.85.

During the day, the Sensex touched an intraday high of 78,157.52, jumping 655.4 points, or 0.84%, before paring some gains. Information technology stocks emerged as the standout performers, with the Nifty IT index surging 1.70% to 27,423.55. HCL Technologies led the IT rally, jumping over 4%.

Realty and pharmaceutical stocks also contributed to the gains, while banking and energy stocks remained under pressure. Market breadth remained positive, with 2,182 stocks advancing, 1,879 declining and 188 remaining unchanged. The India VIX, the fear gauge index, fell to 11.79 from 13.05 at the beginning of the week, reflecting easing volatility.

Nifty Bank Underperforms as Profit Booking Emerges After Sharp Rally

The banking index continued to underperform the benchmark Nifty 50 during the week, declining 93 points to close at 57,938 on Friday. Bank Nifty entered the week after outperforming the broader market in the preceding weeks with a gain of 0.90% to close at 58,177.10.

However, profit booking emerged as the index took a breather after its sharp rally and notable outperformance during the first half of June 2026. On Friday, Bank Nifty erased over 500 points from its intraday high, with the pullback affecting both private and public sector lenders.

Among banking stocks, Axis Bank and State Bank of India ended as major laggards in the Nifty index. Despite the near-term weakness, analysts noted that Bank Nifty remained well above all key moving averages, indicating that the broader trend remained intact.

Analysts believe the broader trend remains positive despite near-term consolidation. Banking was the only major sectoral laggard for the week.

Nifty IT Rebounds Strongly as Sector Surges 6.41% in Two Sessions

The information technology sector staged a powerful recovery during the week, with the Nifty IT index jumping 1.70% on Friday alone. The index surged 6.41% in two consecutive trading sessions, marking a sharp reversal from recent weakness. HCL Technologies led the charge, rising over 4% on Friday.

The IT rally was driven by growing expectations of a more accommodative global monetary policy following softer US labour market data, which bodes well for technology spending by global enterprises. The sector had been under pressure in recent weeks amid concerns that the global growth concerns and uncertainty surrounding enterprise technology spending.

However, the rebound in the final week suggested renewed investor interest in technology stocks. The recovery in IT stocks also received support from positive outcomes of the India-Japan Summit, which boosted sentiment.

Nifty Metal Gains on Easing Geopolitical Concerns and Lower Input Costs

Metal stocks exhibited strength during the week, with the Nifty Metal index rising 1.63% on Friday to lead sectoral gains. The index rallied 1.59% in two consecutive trading sessions. National Aluminium Company emerged as a top performer within the metal pack, gaining 4.33%.

The metal rally was supported by easing geopolitical tensions in West Asia and the continued decline in crude oil prices, which reduced input costs for metal producers. The improving geopolitical conditions, particularly the progress in US-Iran peace talks, alleviated concerns over supply disruptions and improved overall market sentiment and reduced concerns over input costs.

The Nifty Metal index had shown resilience throughout the month, with analysts noting that metals had been among the stronger performers in the broader market.

Nifty Pharma Outperforms with 7.4% Monthly Gain as Defensive Appeal Returns

Pharmaceutical stocks continued their strong run, with the Nifty Pharma index rallying 2% on Friday. In the past month, the Nifty Pharma index outperformed the market by surging 7.4%, compared to a 4.2% rise in the Nifty 50. Thus far in calendar year 2026, the Pharma index has surged 14%, as against a 6.7% gain in the Nifty 50.

Laurus Labs, Ipca Laboratories, Aurobindo Pharma and Torrent Pharmaceuticals hit record highs during the week. The pharma rally was driven by defensive buying amid global uncertainties, as well as expectations of a more favourable regulatory environment and continued strength in domestic and export markets.

Among Nifty constituents, Max Healthcare Institute, Sun Pharma, Apollo Hospitals and Dr Reddy’s Laboratories were among the top gainers. The healthcare sector as a whole gained 3.1% during the week.

Nifty Realty Surges 7.8% as Sector Emerges as Top Weekly Performer

Realty stocks delivered the strongest performance of the week, with the BSE Realty index surging 7.8%. On Friday alone, the Nifty Realty index closed up 2.19% at 890.8. The index has gained 17% over the last one month. Among constituents, Lodha Developers added 5.05%, Oberoi Realty gained 3.74% and Anant Raj rose 3.17%.

From the June low of approximately 780, the Nifty Realty index recovered to 842.70 — a move of roughly 8% in under three weeks, supported by easing geopolitical tensions, softer crude oil prices and improving market sentiment.

The realty rally was supported by lower crude oil prices, which reduced construction costs and improved affordability, as well as easing geopolitical concerns that boosted overall market sentiment. The sector’s strong performance reflected growing expectations of resilient domestic demand and improving economic conditions.

Nifty PSU Bank and Energy Sectors Witness Profit Booking

Public sector undertaking banks and energy stocks witnessed profit booking during the week. The Nifty PSU Bank index declined 1.5%, emerging as the biggest sectoral laggard. Bank of Baroda fell 2.87%, while Punjab National Bank declined 2.24% from their day’s highs. The Nifty Energy index fell 1.3% during the week.

Capital goods stocks declined 2.7%, while the power index fell 2.6%. Sectors such as oil and gas slipped 0.4% and telecommunications declined 0.2%. The weakness in these sectors appeared to be profit-booking rather than a structural downturn, according to analysts.

Analysts noted that the gains in realty, healthcare and consumer stocks reflected easing geopolitical concerns, cooling crude prices and improving domestic demand expectations.

Top Weekly Gainers and Losers Among Nifty 50 Constituents

Among Sensex constituents, Eternal, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Maruti Suzuki and Adani Ports were the top gainers, rising by up to 10.24%. HCL Technologies, Max Healthcare Institute, Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, and Bajaj Finserv emerged as the top gainers in the Nifty index on Friday.

On the other hand, Larsen & Toubro, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra and Mahindra & Mahindra were the top losers, falling by as much as 4.58%. Among index heavyweights earlier in the week, IndiGo, Mahindra & Mahindra and Maruti Suzuki led the advances, while ONGC, Hindalco and Power Grid were among the top losers.

The market capitalisation of six of the top-10 firms rose by over ₹88,000 crore during the week, with ICICI Bank emerging as the biggest gainer, adding ₹29,588.75 crore to reach ₹9,95,610.74 crore.

HDFC Bank added ₹24,981.44 crore, while Reliance Industries, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finance and Larsen & Toubro also recorded gains. On the losing side, Life Insurance Corporation of India and Hindustan Unilever were among the prominent losers.

Two Mainboard IPOs and Eight SME Issues Hit the Primary Market

The primary market remained active during the week, with two mainboard initial public offerings launching alongside eight SME issues.

Textile manufacturer Aastha Spintex opened its ₹170-crore IPO for subscription on June 29, with the issue closing on July 1. The company fixed the issue price at ₹136 per share, and investors could bid for a minimum of 110 shares, translating into an investment of ₹14,960.

The IPO comprised an offer of 1.25 crore equity shares, with the money raised to be used for part-payment of the purchase consideration for the acquisition of Falcon Yarns Pvt Ltd, working capital requirements and corporate general purposes. The basis of allotment was expected to be finalised on July 2, with shares slated to list on July 6.

Packaging solutions provider Knack Packaging launched its ₹440-crore IPO on July 1, making it the first mainboard public issue of July. The company fixed a price band of ₹161-170 per share. The IPO consisted of a fresh issue worth ₹380 crore and an offer for sale of 35 lakh shares by existing shareholders worth ₹59.5 crore. At the upper end of the price band, the company was expected to raise ₹439.5 crore and command a valuation of nearly ₹2,080 crore.

The anchor investor portion opened on June 30, while the public issue remained open until July 3. The company planned to utilise ₹320 crore from the fresh issue proceeds to partly fund a new manufacturing facility at Borisana in Gujarat.

SME IPOs that launched during the week included Adon Agro Commodities, Twinkle Papers, Kratikal Tech, Vinit Mobile, Sampark India Logistics, Seemax Resources, Atharva Polyplast and Teja Engineering Industries.

Listings scheduled for the following week included Turtlemint Fintech Solutions, Waterways Leisure Tourism, Advit Jewels, CSM Technologies, Anubhav Plast, Shreedhar Spinners, Riyaasat Lifestyle, Jivial Industries, Sri Priyanka Geo Commex and Crazy Snacks.

Foreign Portfolio Investors Turn Net Buyers After Prolonged Selling Streak

Foreign portfolio investors bought equities worth ₹4,179.12 crore during the week, marking a significant reversal after months of sustained selling. This followed Foreign Portfolio Investor withdrawals of ₹49,340 crore from Indian equities in June, triggered by global risk aversion, preference for developed markets, soaring US bond yields and stretched domestic valuations.

Domestic institutional investors remained stronger buyers, investing ₹12,633.54 crore during the week. The return of foreign buying, combined with sustained domestic inflows, provided strong support to the markets. The improving geopolitical conditions in West Asia and the decline in crude oil prices were key factors that attracted foreign investors back to Indian equities.

Analysts noted that concerns over the durability of the US-Iran peace arrangement, muted expectations ahead of the earnings season, and an uneven start to the monsoon had prompted profit booking early in the week. Sentiment, however, improved as geopolitical tensions eased and global monetary policy expectations turned more supportive.

Key Triggers That Shaped the Market This Week

Several key triggers shaped market sentiment during the week. Softer US jobs data for June, which showed the economy added only 57,000 jobs against expectations of 110,000, tempered expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes this year.

This reinforced expectations of a more accommodative global interest-rate environment. Easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz weighed on crude oil prices, which continued their slide to $72.70 a barrel from $75.07, offering significant relief to an economy that depends heavily on energy imports.

The Indian rupee strengthened 14-17 paise to close at 95.21-95.22 against the dollar, supported by a weaker dollar and moderating foreign institutional selling. Positive outcomes from the India-Japan Summit and the continued recovery in the IT sector also boosted sentiment.

On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of India’s June bulletin flagged below-normal monsoon rainfall as a key risk to India’s growth and inflation outlook, with the rainfall deficit widening to 42.2% of the long-period average as of June 21. However, the market appeared to look past these concerns, focusing instead on the improving global backdrop.

Technical Outlook Turns Positive as Nifty Breaks Out of Consolidation Range

From a technical perspective, the Nifty finally broke out of its consolidation range of 23,800-24,200 and moved closer to the next key hurdle, the 200-day exponential moving average. While the broader trend has turned positive, the pace of gains could remain gradual as the index approaches a key resistance zone between 24,450 and 24,600, where the 200-day EMA coincides with the previous swing high.

Analysts said the Nifty has registered a consolidation breakout on the daily chart and continues to hold above its 50-day EMA, indicating improving market sentiment. They further added that the Relative Strength Index has also witnessed a bullish crossover, strengthening the positive momentum.

Accordingly, the index is well placed for further upside, though intermittent consolidation cannot be ruled out. Analysts also noted that while the broader trend has turned positive, the pace of gains could remain gradual as the index approaches a key resistance zone.

India VIX Plunges 9.6% to 11.79, Its Lowest Close Since February as Geopolitical Fears Fade

The India VIX, the market’s fear gauge, declined sharply during the week ended July 3, closing at its lowest level since mid-February as geopolitical tensions eased and crude oil prices remained subdued. The volatility index, which measures expected near-term market volatility based on Nifty options, fell 9.6% during the week to 11.79 from 13.05.

On Friday alone, it dropped 3.99%, touching an intraday low of 11.65 before closing at its lowest level since February 12. The decline was driven by easing tensions in West Asia, as progress in diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran reduced concerns over disruptions to global energy supplies.

Softer crude oil prices, hovering around USD 70–72 per barrel, also eased inflation concerns for India. Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected US labour market data reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, adding to positive market sentiment.

The fall in India VIX coincided with the Nifty 50 extending its winning streak to a third session, ending at a two-month high of 24,270.85. Technically, sustained trading below 12 indicates lower near-term uncertainty, with analysts expecting the index to ease towards 10.5.

Market participants should watch the Federal Reserve meeting minutes on July 8 for clues on future rate hikes. The June-quarter earnings season, monsoon progress, and rural demand will also remain key triggers. Technically, the Nifty’s 24,450–24,600 resistance zone will be crucial for determining the market’s next direction.

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