Stock Market Set to Open on a Cautious, but Positive Note 

Mumbai, June 12: Indian equity markets will open on a positive but cautious note on Friday as Gift Nifty futures are trading marginally lower even as Asian stocks trade in the green and Wall Street finished Thursday’s session on a strong note. US President Donald Trump said late Thursday that a “great settlement” had been reached with Iran, only for Iran’s Foreign Ministry to play down Trump’s comments a few hours later by stating that “no final decision has been made” yet. Until there is greater clarity over what exactly has been agreed between Tehran and Washington, investors will keep the geopolitical risk premium priced in through the weekend. 

Gift Nifty Signal 

Gift Nifty June 30 futures were trading at 23,358.50 at 7: 09 am on Friday, June 12, down 44.00 pts or 0.19%, which is usually indicative of a muted opening followed by a strong recovery later, amid positive global cues. Based on the contract’s current level near 23,358, we are possibly looking at a Nifty 50 opening not too far away from Thursday’s close of 23,161.60; bigger gaps either way are unlikely unless some fresh macro news arrives before the bell at 9:15 am IST.  

Although Gift Nifty’s reading belies any sharp move at the open, it will be hard for Indian markets to ignore positive sentiment from other parts of the world — Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up over 3% already, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has rallied almost 1% and all five US indices closed higher Thursday, led by a 929-point jump in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s ambiguous remarks on Thursday evening will likely offset global risk-on euphoria in Asia’ Friday session as investors parse his comments for clues on what a final deal with the US will look like; volatility is expected to remain elevated throughout today’s trade. 

Iran: No Final Decision Yet 

President Trump on Thursday told reporters that the United States and Iran had reached a “great settlement” and that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen as soon as this weekend once a deal is formally signed a statement that briefly lit up risk assets globally. However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei pushed back within hours, stating that while large parts of the negotiating text have been finalised, Tehran has “not reached a final conclusion” and that the matter remains under review by relevant decision-making bodies. The two sides have traded military strikes this week, straining a fragile ceasefire announced in April, and Iran’s red lines — which include the lifting of international sanctions, release of frozen assets, and recognition of its control of the Strait — remain unresolved. Until a formal agreement is signed and ratified, markets are likely to treat any peace announcement with caution, given the pattern of premature optimism that has characterised the three-month-old conflict. 

Asian Markets on Friday Morning 

Asian markets were trading broadly higher on Friday morning, led by a sharp rally in Japan where the Nikkei 225 surged 2,090.07 points or 3.25% to 66,307.34, the strongest single-session gain in the region, driven by relief over Trump’s decision to call off planned military strikes against Iran. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong advanced 222.53 points or 0.92% to 24,471.82, while the Shanghai Composite edged up 21.28 points or 0.53% to 4,008.29, as Chinese investors also responded positively to the prospect of easing West Asian tensions. Australia’s S&P ASX All Ordinaries Index gained 150.20 points or 1.70% to 8,986.90, and Thailand’s SET Index rose 8.73 points or 0.56% to 1,572.32, reflecting broad-based risk appetite across the Asia-Pacific region. The lone exception was Indonesia’s JSX Composite, which slipped 16.34 points or 0.28% to 5,886.03, but the overall regional tone remained constructively positive heading into Friday’s trading sessions. 

US Markets Close Strong on Thursday 

Wall Street delivered a powerful rally on Thursday as Trump’s announcement of progress in Iran talks prompted broad-based buying, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging 929.97 points or 1.86% to close at 50,848.75 one of its strongest single-session gains in weeks. The technology-heavy NASDAQ Composite advanced 640.16 points or 2.54% to 25,809.66, while the benchmark S&P 500 climbed 127.31 points or 1.75% to 7,394.30, as investors rotated into risk assets on hopes that a resolution to the Iran conflict could ease global energy price pressures. The NYSE Composite also gained 332.06 points or 1.44% to close at 23,412.89, confirming that the Thursday rally was broad-based across sectors and not confined to any single industry group. 

Oil Prices Extend Decline 

Crude oil prices extended their decline into Friday’s Asian session after Trump called off planned military strikes on Iran, with Brent futures falling $1.21 or 1.3% to $89.17 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate dropping $1.23 or 1.4% to $86.48 as of early Friday morning. On a weekly basis, the retreat has been substantial — Brent is down 4.2% and WTI has shed 4.4% over the week reflecting a meaningful unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into energy prices since the latest round of US-Iran hostilities began. For India, which imports approximately 85% of its crude oil requirements, the easing in oil prices is a significant macroeconomic positive, potentially easing the pressure on the current account deficit, softening the inflation outlook, and providing the RBI with additional headroom to maintain its accommodative stance. 

Indian Markets: Thursday’s Close 

Indian benchmark indices ended Thursday on a weak note, with the BSE Sensex falling 150.63 points or 0.20% to close at 73,832.55 and the NSE Nifty 50 declining 53.35 points or 0.23% to 23,161.60, as a sharp selloff in information technology stocks and weakness in rate-sensitive sectors outweighed gains in media, pharmaceuticals, and private banking shares. Market breadth was decisively negative, with 2,681 stocks declining against 1,325 advances on the NSE, reflecting broad-based risk aversion driven by rising crude oil prices and lingering concerns over the global economic outlook. The Nifty’s slip below the 23,200 mark on Thursday sets up a technically sensitive open on Friday, where bulls will need to defend the 23,100–23,150 support band to prevent a further deterioration in near-term sentiment. 

Source: 

• nseindia.com