U.S. Jobs report and RBI’s MPC meeting will take center stage today

The U.S. Jobs report and India’s MPC meeting will take centre stage today, with a 25-basis-point cut widely expected. U.S. stocks were down today, led by a 15% decline in Tesla after President Trump threatened to cancel government contracts and subsidies for the auto and clean energy company. Stocks continued to fluctuate throughout the trading day, bouncing back and forth across the unchanged line before eventually closing in negative territory.

Stocks showed some strength earlier in the day after President Donald Trump confirmed in a post on Truth Social that he had a roughly 90-minute phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Participants are reluctant to make more significant moves ahead of the release of the Labour Department’s closely watched monthly jobs report, scheduled for today. The RBI Monetary Policy Committee meeting, which commenced on June 4th, is widely expected to deliver another 25-bp cut today. The MPC has already cut rates by 50 basis points this year through two 25-bp reductions. Headline inflation has moderated notably in recent months, driven primarily by easing food prices.

However, challenges persist: uneven consumption recovery, muted private capital expenditure, and subdued manufacturing growth. External headwinds, including U.S. tariff policies, global trade tensions, sluggish worldwide growth, and geopolitical risks, continue to pressure domestic growth prospects. The RBI has already reduced the repo rate to 6% in 2025 and shifted to an accommodative stance in April. This growth-inflation dynamic creates strong justification for monetary easing. The Nifty has regained its level above the 20-day EMA, indicating a potential strengthening of the underlying trend. The index has established a strong base near 24,500. On the upside, 24,900 could offer short-term resistance for the Nifty, as investors also looked ahead to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy decision, with the central bank widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time. Markets are expected to open subdued today, awaiting the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. Close Abs. Change % Change Sensex 81,442 443.8 0.55%

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Source: HDFC Securities Prime Research