Oil Prices Today, November 4, 2026: Brent Slips To $103.2 As Investors Watch US Midterm Polls

Mumbai, November 4: Crude oil prices declined on Wednesday, November 4, as investors assessed the implications of the US midterm elections for Washington’s foreign policy and diplomatic efforts to resolve conflicts in the Middle East. Market sentiment remained cautious amid uncertainty over the prospects of a peace agreement between the US and Iran, while traders also weighed fresh data pointing to an unexpected decline in US crude inventories. 

Brent crude futures declined 0.4% to $103.2 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 0.5% to $95.6 per barrel. 

The decline followed losses in the previous session, when Brent crude fell more than 1% to its lowest level in nearly four weeks. Investors have been balancing the possibility of easing geopolitical tensions and improved crude supply prospects against the risk of further disruptions in the Middle East. 

US Midterm Elections, Iran Talks In Focus 

Vote counting was underway in the US midterm elections, which will determine whether President Donald Trump’s Republican Party retains control of Congress for the remainder of his second term. Investors are watching the outcome for potential implications for US foreign policy, particularly its approach towards the conflicts in the Middle East. 

Markets were also tracking developments in efforts to end the US-Israeli war with Iran. Qatar has stepped up mediation efforts to prevent an escalation of hostilities following the US elections, although prospects of an agreement between Washington and Tehran remain uncertain. 

A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday that Iran and the US remained far from reaching a deal to end the conflict, highlighting the challenges facing diplomatic efforts. 

Meanwhile, the US carried out what officials described as defensive strikes on Iran’s Qeshm island, targeting surface-to-air missile installations allegedly used against American assets. A US official said the strikes appeared limited and did not indicate a return to major combat operations. 

US President Donald Trump also told the Financial Times that Washington had no immediate plans to launch further strikes against Iran. He added that the US was getting what it wanted from the ongoing developments. 

The possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough remains an important factor for crude markets, given the potential implications for oil supplies from the Middle East. Any reduction in geopolitical tensions could ease concerns over supply disruptions and exert further pressure on prices. Conversely, an escalation in hostilities could revive the geopolitical risk premium in crude. 

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US Crude Inventories Fall 5.27 Million Barrels 

Providing some support to oil prices, US crude inventories registered a larger-than-expected decline in the week ended October 30, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), cited by market sources on Wednesday. 

Crude stocks fell by 5.27 million barrels during the week, sharply contrasting with expectations of an increase of approximately 880,000 barrels, based on a Reuters poll of eight analysts. 

However, the movement in refined petroleum product inventories was mixed. US gasoline stocks increased by 1.43 million barrels, while distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, declined by 1.19 million barrels from the previous week. 

Haitong Futures said in a note on Wednesday that tight diesel inventories and a larger-than-expected increase in gasoline stocks made the overall inventory data broadly supportive of oil prices. 

The unexpected drawdown in crude stocks suggests underlying demand and supply conditions could offer some support to the market, even as geopolitical developments and expectations surrounding diplomatic negotiations remain the dominant drivers of price movements. 

EIA Inventory Data Awaited 

Investors are now awaiting official US crude inventory figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), scheduled for release later on Wednesday at 1530 GMT. 

The EIA data will provide further insight into the US oil market’s supply-demand balance and help investors assess whether the inventory decline reported by the API is reflected in government estimates. 

The trajectory of crude oil prices is likely to remain influenced by developments in the Middle East, the outcome of the US midterm elections and fresh inventory data. While diplomatic progress could ease concerns over supply disruptions, any renewed military escalation could push prices higher. 

Source

• Oilprice.com