D-Street Eyes Positive Start as Global Cues Lift Sentiment

Mumbai, Aug 20: Gift Nifty futures point to a positive start for Indian equity benchmarks on Thursday, with the Nifty 50 and Sensex likely to open at 9:15 am with a mild-to-moderate positive bias, a potential pause in the seven-session losing streak that has weighed on Dalal Street through much of August.  

The optimistic premarket signal is being driven largely by overnight strength on Wall Street and a broadly firmer tone across Asian markets on Thursday morning. All the major US indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, closed higher on Wednesday, extending gains even as investors digested the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting, which showed the central bank holding rates steady in a split decision. The minutes revealed elevated concern among some participants about persistent inflation and financial stability risks tied to the artificial intelligence investment boom, but the overall message, that the US economy continues to expand at a solid pace with a stable labour market, appeared to reassure risk appetite rather than dent it.  

That resilience carried into Thursday’s Asian session. Japan’s Nikkei 225 led regional gains, rising about 1 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Shanghai’s benchmark also traded firmer, tracking Wall Street’s advance. South Korea’s Kospi, which had slumped sharply a session earlier on a global chip sell-off, staged a sharp rebound in early Thursday trade as easing US Treasury yields lifted sentiment toward semiconductor heavyweights.  

Investors in India are likely to track developments on the Iran-US front, crude oil price moves and global bond yields closely through the day, alongside stock-specific triggers, as they weigh whether Thursday’s gains mark a genuine turnaround or only a pause in the recent downtrend.  

Gift Nifty Snapshot  

Gift Nifty futures for the August 25 contract were quoting at 24,236, up 37.50 points or 0.15 per cent, as of 8:15 am IST on Thursday. The move suggests the Nifty 50, which closed below the 24,100 mark in the previous session, could open with a gap-up of roughly 35 to 40 points at the 9:15 am bell, in line with the broader positive signal from overnight global cues.  

Iran War Latest  

President Trump warned on Wednesday that any country allowing its financial institutions, businesses, airports or government entities to provide a lifeline to Iran would face tremendous economic consequences, though he did not name any specific country or outline concrete steps. The warning came days after the UAE suspended all trade, commercial and financial dealings with Iran, citing two ballistic missiles it said were detected targeting maritime traffic, a claim Tehran has dismissed as baseless. Two earlier ceasefire attempts, in April and June, aimed at restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels have both collapsed, even as Israel has largely withdrawn from active fighting. Iran has said it remains open to dialogue but will not confuse negotiations with surrender, while Trump separately said on Tuesday that no talks were currently underway with Tehran.  

Asian Markets on Thursday Morning  

Asian markets were mostly higher on Thursday morning, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street. Japan’s Nikkei 225 led the region, climbing 1 per cent to 65,982.49, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.64 per cent and Shanghai’s Composite index rose 0.26 per cent. Australia’s All Ordinaries gained 0.41 per cent and Malaysia’s KLCI was marginally higher, up 0.02 per cent. The gains were not universal, however, with Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite down 0.86 per cent, Pakistan’s KSE 100 falling 0.62 per cent, Thailand’s SET index off 0.73 per cent and Vietnam’s HNX 30 down 0.76 per cent.  

US Markets on Wednesday  

All the major US indices ended higher on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.22 per cent to 53,463.05, the S&P 500 added 0.21 per cent to close at 7,707.98, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.16 per cent to end at 26,331.09. The NYSE Composite advanced 0.32 per cent, while Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite and Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC also closed in positive territory, up 0.09 per cent and 0.10 per cent, respectively.  

Oil Prices  

Crude oil prices were mostly steady to higher. WTI crude was largely flat at $84.45 a barrel, up 0.07 per cent, while Brent crude edged up 0.26 per cent to $91.86. Murban crude jumped 1.69 per cent to $99.40, and the OPEC Basket price surged nearly 4.85 per cent to $89.57, even as natural gas and gasoline prices eased slightly on the day.  

Highlights of the Minutes of the FOMC Meeting  

The US Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3½–3¾ per cent at its July 28-29 meeting, with nine members supporting the decision and three, Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan, dissenting in favour of a 25 basis point hike, as the Committee reaffirmed its commitment to “deliver price stability.” Inflation remained elevated, with core PCE inflation at 3.4 per cent in May, driven by tariffs, higher energy costs from the escalating Middle East conflict and AI-related demand, even as staff expected some cooling through the rest of the year. Markets priced in a real possibility of near-term hikes, including a one-in-three chance of a July move and a fully priced increase by September, diverging from most participants who favoured holding steady given still-solid growth and stable labour market conditions. Financial stability risks tied to the AI investment boom were flagged as “notable,” with elevated equity valuations, growing reliance on debt to finance AI infrastructure, and concerns about a potential sharp repricing if AI expectations disappoint. The meeting also saw Chairman Kevin Warsh float a possible shift to six scheduled meetings a year, though no decision was made, and the Committee set its next meeting for September 15-16, 2026.  

Sensex, Nifty Close on Wednesday  

Indian equity benchmarks extended their losing streak on Wednesday, with the Sensex falling 0.42 per cent and the Nifty declining 0.32 per cent to end below the 24,100 mark, their seventh straight session of losses and the longest such run in nearly a year. The IT index was the only major sectoral gauge to end higher, up 0.7 per cent after a sharp recent decline, while the Defence and Energy indices dropped 1.5 per cent and 1.2 per cent, respectively, among the biggest sectoral drags. Power Grid Corporation, Max Healthcare, Coal India, ITC and Bajaj Finance were among the biggest losers on the Nifty 50, as market breadth remained weak with 2,386 shares declining against 1,725 advancing.  

Sources

• oilprice.com
• nseindia.com
• bseindia.com