Gift Nifty Points to Muted Open as RBI Decision, Oil, Iran Standoff Keep Investors Cautious

Mumbai, Oct 6: Indian markets are expected to open muted on Tuesday. Gift Nifty was trading slightly lower as market participants await the RBI’s decision tomorrow. Crude oil prices have risen slightly, while the Iran-US situation is also likely to influence market sentiment today. Global cues are mixed this morning, with Asian markets trading on a mixed note. US markets closed higher on Monday, with the Nasdaq 100 leading the gains. 

The Gift Nifty futures contract expiring on October 27 was trading at 22,640.00 as of 8:01 am IST. This was 17 points, or 0.08 per cent, lower than its previous closing price of 22,657. The futures contract was trading 84.25 points higher than the Nifty’s Monday close of 22,555.75. The futures premium can therefore be attributed to the cost of carry until expiry. Thus, the futures contract was 0.08 per cent lower than its previous day’s close. This indicates a flat-to-lower opening for the Nifty 50 index, which rose 0.60 per cent on Monday. 

The RBI will announce its MPC decision at 10 am on Wednesday, while Governor Sanjay Malhotra will hold a press conference at 12 noon. The RBI has kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent for four consecutive monetary policy reviews after reducing it by 125 bps in 2025. Most analysts are expecting the RBI to hike the repo rate. This would be the first rate hike since February 2023. The US Fed hiked interest rates last month after three years, while Japan also increased its rates to 1.25 per cent. 

There was no sign of de-escalation between the US and Iran on Monday. US President Donald Trump stated that, due to threats related to Iran, he had to take off the US B-1 bomber jets from RAF Fairford in the UK, which was being used as the main European base for US bomber aircraft. Last week, five British nationals were taken into custody near the airbase on suspicion of carrying out terrorist activities. Iran denied any links to the alleged plot. 

Vice President JD Vance said the move was a precautionary measure, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not confirm whether there was any link between the two developments. A NATO army official told reporters that Iran continues to pose a significant threat to US assets in the UK. Analysts believe that pulling back these jets reduces the US’s ability to quickly carry out missions against Iran. 

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is another key factor to watch for India, which imports most of its oil. Data from Kpler and LSEG showed that four LNG ships carrying cargo from Qatar were seen outside the strait between Oct 2 and 3. This adds to the recent uptick in LNG shipments from Qatar.Four LNG carriers loaded with Qatari cargoes reappeared outside the strait around October 2 and 3, according to Kpler and LSEG data, extending a recent rise in Qatar’s LNG traffic. One of them, Al Sadd, delivered its cargo to Dahej in India on October 3. Many vessels transit with transponders switched off, and security risks from the war on Iran persist. 

Asian Markets Trade Mixed 

Asian markets were mixed on Tuesday morning. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.81 per cent to 24,234.06, Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.65 per cent to 8,742.6, Shanghai added 0.31 per cent to 3,842.195 and Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.19 per cent to 70,081.53. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.56 per cent to 6,964.69, Singapore’s Straits Times slipped 0.31 per cent to 5,646.51 and Taiwan’s benchmark lost 0.18 per cent to 49,622.67. Shenzhen eased 0.11 per cent, while Malaysia rose 0.35 per cent. 

Wall Street Ends Higher 

US markets ended Monday mostly higher, led by the Nasdaq 100, which gained 0.87 per cent to 31,076.441. The NYSE index rose 0.57 per cent to 23,788.62, the Russell 2000 added 0.50 per cent to 2,847.136 and utilities gained 0.27 per cent to 1,020.78. Transports were the exception, falling 1.09 per cent to 19,791.56. 

Oil Edges Higher 

Oil prices edged higher in early trade on Tuesday. Brent crude rose 51 cents or 0.51 per cent to $100.83 a barrel, and WTI gained 32 cents or 0.36 per cent to $89.75. Murban crude, the Abu Dhabi benchmark, fell $1.73 or 1.56 per cent to $109.09. Crude at these levels adds to the imported inflation risk the Finance Ministry flagged in its September monthly review. 

Sensex, Nifty Rebound on Monday 

The Sensex rose 0.66 per cent to 72,382.47 on Monday, while the Nifty 50 gained 0.60 per cent, or 133.80 points, to close at 22,555.75, reclaiming the 22,500 level. The rebound followed eight straight weekly declines, the longest losing streak in 25 years, as crude prices eased and fears of another US Fed rate hike faded. Banks led, with Punjab National Bank (PNB) up 2.5 per cent, Bajaj Finance (BAJFINANCE) up 2.3 per cent and Bank of Baroda (BANKBARODA) up 0.9 per cent after quarterly updates. HCL Technologies (HCLTECH), Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH), Asian Paints (ASIANPAINT) and Apollo Hospitals (APOLLOHOSP) were among the Nifty’s biggest losers, and 2,297 stocks declined against 1,991 advancing. 

Source

•  NSE
• Reuters
• CNBC
• oilprice.com,