Gift Nifty Suggests Flat-to- Marginally Negative Start For Monday

Mumbai, July 31: Gift Nifty futures traded largely flat in Friday’s session, suggesting Nifty 50 and Sensex are likely to open flat-to-marginally negative when Indian markets reopen at 9:15 am on Monday, August 3, after the weekend break. Meanwhile, investors continued to keep a close watch on developments around the Iran-US tensions and their impact on crude oil prices.  

The near-month August 25 contract of Gift Nifty was trading at 24,445.00, down 3 points or 0.01 per cent on the day compared to its previous close of 24,448.00. This indicates a lack of strong directional bias ahead of the opening bell on Monday. The marginal dip suggests Indian benchmarks are likely to open in a rangebound-to-mildly-negative manner, with traders looking for more cues from developments in Iran and the Gulf region over the weekend.  

Gift Nifty Intraday Chart  

It opened Friday’s session at 24,412.5, reached an intraday high of 24,490.5 and touched a low of 24,365.5. It eventually settled near 24,445.00. Support for Monday’s trade is placed at 24,365.5, while resistance is at 24,490.5. We expect Indian benchmark indices to open between these two levels, tracking Gift Nifty’s largely flat close heading into the weekend.  

Developments on Iran-US Conflict  

Iran and the United States continued to trade strikes on military targets through the week. Houthi militants aligned with Iran maintained their naval blockade on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea routes, forcing tankers to reroute via the Suez Canal and Sumed pipeline instead of the Bab el-Mandeb strait. A drone strike that damaged two gas tankers in Egyptian waters near Damietta added fresh security concerns around the Suez Canal itself, though no group has claimed responsibility. Iran and Oman continued talks on managing the Strait of Hormuz, even after Tehran ruled out Muscat’s proposal for joint regional oversight. Saudi Arabia has also proposed a multinational maritime coalition, backed by 14 countries, to boost defence cooperation around the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.  

Crude Oil Prices  

Oil prices eased in Friday’s trade after a volatile session a day earlier, as investors weighed a proposed Saudi-led maritime coalition against the ongoing risk premium from the Iran-US conflict. Brent crude traded lower near $89 a barrel, extending Thursday’s fall of $1.71, or 1.88 per cent, after touching a session high of $93.31 amid fresh US-Iran strikes. US WTI crude hovered near $83.60 a barrel, having settled 87 cents, or 1.03 per cent, lower on Thursday after an earlier spike to $85.94. Traders said the market remains caught between the immediate risk premium and expectations of a supply overhang once tensions ease.  

Gains on Indian markets may remain restricted ahead of Monday’s open due to elevated crude oil prices and continuing uncertainty around the Iran-US crisis. Should macro and geopolitical conditions stay rangebound over the weekend, our forecast of a flat-to-marginally-negative open for Indian equity benchmarks on Monday would hold true. 

Present Nifty opening predictions are subject to change on the basis of news flow from Asian markets, fresh developments in the Iran-US crisis, or shifts in crude oil prices before Indian markets open at 9:15 am on Monday, August 3.  

Source

• nseix.com