Gift Nifty Suggests Flat-To- Marginally Positive Start on Friday

Mumbai, July 30. Gift Nifty futures traded with a slightly positive bias in Thursday’s session, suggesting Nifty 50 and Sensex are likely to open flat-to-marginally positive when Indian markets reopen at 9:15 am on Friday, July 31. Meanwhile investors continued to keep a close watch on developments around the Iran-US tensions and its impact on crude oil prices.  

The near-month August 25, 20 contract of Gift Nifty was trading at 24,409.50, up 46.50 points or 0.19 per cent on the day. The far-month September 29, 20 contract was trading flat at 24,453.00, as compared to its previous close. This indicates a lack of strong directional bias ahead of the opening bell on Friday. The slight gain indicates the Indian benchmarks are likely to open in a rangebound- to mildly-positive manner on Friday with traders looking for more cues from overnight developments in Iran and the Gulf region.  

Gift Nifty Intraday Chart  

It opened Thursday’s session at 24,285.50, reached an intraday high of 24,415 and touched a low of 24,206. It eventually settled near 24,409.50. Support for Friday’s trade is placed at 24,206 while resistance is at 24,415. We expect Indian benchmark indices to open between these two levels, tracking Gift Nifty’s mildly positive close.  

Developments on Iran-US Conflict  

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Quds Force said on Thursday it was ready to protect Iranian interests “at any level using all means”, while diplomatic contacts between Washington and Tehran remained open. Israel put its troops on high alert along its northern border and reservists are being called up amid worries about possible fallout from the confrontation. The fragile ceasefire in Lebanon survived Thursday without incident, but Hezbollah cautioned it would retaliate if Israel continued strikes on Lebanese territory. Iranian and US warships have reported a “stressful but safe” encounter in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday evening, signalling that the fragile ceasefire there could snap anytime.  

Crude Oil Prices  

Oil prices gave up some gains in early Friday trade after settling with significant gains on Thursday. Investors chose to trade cautiously even as tensions in the Gulf remained low for now. Brent crude futures traded down 0.4 per cent at $85.60 per barrel. WTI crude futures traded 0.5 per cent lower at $80.90 a barrel, having settled above $80 a barrel on Thursday. Meanwhile, Tehran has not yet accepted a proposal by Oman to charge transit fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.  

Gains on Indian markets may remain restricted ahead of Friday’s open due to elevated crude oil prices and uncertainty around Iran-US crisis continuing. Should macro and geopolitical factors remain rangebound during Friday’s trading session, our forecast of a flat-to-marginally-positive open for Indian equity benchmarks would come true. 

Present Nifty opening predictions are subject to change on the news flow from Asian markets or fresh developments on Iran-US crisis or changes in crude oil prices before the markets open at 9.15 am on Friday.  

Source

• nseix.com