Gift Nifty Points to Flat-to-Marginally-Weak Start for Sensex, Nifty on Thursday

Mumbai, July 29: Gift Nifty futures in Wednesday’s session at 4.10 pm was trading with a mildly weak note, pointing to a flat-to-marginally-weak start for Nifty 50 and Sensex when Indian markets reopen at 9:15 am on Thursday, July 30, even as investors continued to track the fallout of the Iran-US conflict and its bearing on crude oil prices. 

The near-month August 25, 2026 contract of Gift Nifty last traded at 24,276.50, down 26.50 points, or 0.11 per cent, on the day. The far-month September 29, 2026 contract, in contrast, held unchanged at 24,394.00, showing little directional conviction ahead of Thursday’s open. The modest slippage in the near-month contract points to a largely rangebound-to-mildly-weak opening bias for Indian benchmarks, with traders likely to draw further cues from Asian markets and overnight developments in the Middle East before committing to a clear direction. 

Gift Nifty Intraday 

The near-month contract opened Wednesday’s session at 24,292.5 and climbed to an intraday high of 24,339, before slipping to a low of 24,202 as the session wore on. It settled near 24,276.5, down marginally by 26.5 points, or 0.11 per cent, on the day. Support for Thursday’s session is placed at 24,202 (Wednesday’s low) and resistance at 24,339 (Wednesday’s high), with Indian benchmark indices likely to open in the 24,200-24,340 zone, tracking Gift Nifty’s flat-to-weak close. 

Iran War Updates 

The US military said on Tuesday it intercepted multiple Iranian ballistic missiles fired towards American forces in the Middle East, in what Washington described as an attempted surprise attack by Tehran. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said the missiles targeted a US air base and a Central Command centre in Jordan, in what they called retaliation for US actions against Iranian interests. The US and Saudi Arabia subsequently conducted strikes in Iraq on sites linked to Iran-backed militant groups, even as President Trump said “good talks” with Tehran were under way despite Iran denying any resumption of negotiations. The exchange of strikes underscores how fragile the broader pause in hostilities remains, keeping investors watchful of further escalation through the week. 

Oil Prices 

Oil prices rebounded by more than $2 a barrel in early trade on Wednesday, recouping some of the previous session’s losses as US crude inventories continued to shrink. Brent futures rose 3.2 per cent to $86.80 a barrel, while WTI crude climbed 3.4 per cent to $81.95, supported by a 3.3-million-barrel drop in US crude stocks for the week ended July 24. Further support came from reports that OPEC+ will likely pause output increases for three months starting in October after completing scheduled supply additions. Prices have whipsawed through the Iran conflict, particularly given the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with Oman reportedly presenting Tehran a plan to manage the strait through voluntary transit fees. Even after Wednesday’s rebound, crude remains volatile, with any fresh escalation in the missile exchanges capable of reigniting sharp upside moves. 

Gift Nifty’s marginally weak status on Wednesday late afternoon suggests Sensex and Nifty 50 are likely to open without a strong directional bias on Thursday, with the rebound in crude oil prices offering limited additional support even as investors stay watchful of whether the fragile Iran-US pause holds through the rest of the week. Should the missile exchanges intensify or spill over into a broader escalation, sentiment could turn quickly, given how sharply oil prices and equity markets have swung through the course of the conflict so far. 

It should be noted that Gift Nifty is only an indicative pointer to the likely opening trend for Sensex and Nifty 50, not a guaranteed forecast. Actual opening levels on Thursday can diverge from current Gift Nifty cues due to overnight developments in Asian markets, fresh headlines on the Iran-US conflict, or shifts in crude oil prices between Wednesday’s close and the 9:15 am bell. 

Source

•  nseix.com