Gift Nifty Suggests Muted Open for Sensex, Nifty on Monday

Mumbai, Aug 21: Gift Nifty futures point to a largely rangebound opening for Indian equity benchmarks when trading resumes on Monday, August 24, after the weekend break. The Nifty’s near-month August 25 contract was trading at 24,302, up 16 points, or 0.07 per cent, while the September 29 contract was at 24,341, down 16 points, or 0.07 per cent, reflecting a mixed undertone across contract months. 

Gift Nifty Intraday Analysis 

Gift Nifty opened the session at 24,282.5 and surged early on to an intraday high of 24,357.5, before a sharp reversal dragged prices down to a low of 24,259 by mid-morning. The contract spent the rest of the session oscillating in a narrow band around the 24,275-24,310 zone, alternating between gains and losses through the afternoon. It settled at 24,302, up 16 points, or 0.07 per cent, almost unchanged from where it had opened, despite the wide intraday swing. 

The pattern, a strong opening rally followed by a steep pullback and a choppy recovery, suggests profit-booking set in after early gains, with the index struggling to sustain a decisive move in either direction. Support is likely near the day’s low of 24,259, with resistance seen closer to the high of 24,357.5. Given this range-bound setup, Indian benchmarks are likely to open on a flat-to-mildly-positive note on Monday. 

Iran War 

The Iran-US standoff remained unresolved through the week, with Washington escalating economic pressure even as military confrontation stayed on hold. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US would impose the “toughest sanctions in history” on Tehran, describing it as a “one-two punch” alongside the existing naval blockade. Iran’s foreign ministry rejected the move as “economic terrorism,” while separate talks between Iran and Oman on managing the Strait of Hormuz continued without a firm resolution. The prolonged uncertainty has kept crude oil markets, and by extension Indian equities, sensitive to any fresh escalation over the weekend. 

Asian Markets Close Mixed on Friday 

Asian markets ended Friday’s session on a mixed note, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gaining 148.08 points, or 0.58 per cent, to 25,846.57 and Indonesia’s JSX Composite jumping 107.46 points, or 1.68 per cent, to 6,501.59. Malaysia’s FTSE Bursa KLCI added 0.31 per cent, while Shanghai’s SE Composite rose 0.15 per cent and Vietnam’s HNX 30 edged up marginally. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 216.71 points, or 0.33 per cent, to 66,000.08, while Australia’s S&P ASX All Ordinaries dropped 0.32 per cent and Pakistan’s KSE 100 slipped 0.14 per cent. 

Crude Oil Price 

Oil prices were largely steady in early trade, with Brent crude down 0.14 per cent at $93.65 a barrel and WTI crude off 0.06 per cent at $86.78 a barrel. Natural gas rose 1.72 per cent and gasoline gained 1.12 per cent, while the Opec basket climbed 1.72 per cent to $92.84. Murban crude eased 0.11 per cent to $100.96, even as WTI Midland and Mars crude both firmed. The muted moves in the key benchmarks came even as the unresolved Iran standoff kept a floor under prices heading into the weekend. 

Global Bond Yields, US Cues 

Global sentiment through the week was shaped in large part by the US Treasury’s move to more than double its buybacks of longer-duration debt, a step that helped ease a sharp rise in yields and supported risk appetite across equity markets. The relief flowed through to Wall Street, where US stocks snapped a multi-day losing streak, and to Asian bourses, which broadly tracked the improved mood. For Indian markets, softer US yields have historically eased pressure on the rupee and on foreign portfolio flows, a dynamic that traders will watch closely as the new week begins. 

Outlook 

With Gift Nifty settling nearly flat despite a volatile session and Asian markets ending mixed, Indian benchmarks look set for a cautious start on Monday. Investors will watch for any developments over the weekend on the Iran sanctions front, along with crude price movements and the sustainability of the recent easing in global bond yields, for cues on whether the market can build on this week’s recovery or slip back into a consolidation phase. 

Source

• nseix.com