Global Markets Today, August 17, 2026: Asian Markets Subdued, Oil Near $90; Indian Equities May Get Cautious Start

Mumbai, August 17: Indian benchmark indices are likely to open on a cautious note on Monday, with subdued Asian markets, marginally positive US stock futures and persistent geopolitical concerns in the Middle East setting a subdued tone for global equities. Rising crude oil prices and a sharp slowdown in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could weigh on sentiment, although expectations of lower US interest rates may provide some support. 

Asian Markets Subdued 

Asian equities were subdued in early trade as investors assessed the economic and inflationary risks from the ongoing Middle East conflict. Japan’s Nikkei rose around 0.011%, while Australia’s resources-heavy ASX 200 slipped 0.36%. South Korean markets were closed for a holiday. 

Investors were also awaiting a batch of Chinese economic data, including industrial production and retail sales figures, for further clues on the health of the world’s second-largest economy. Concerns over China’s growth outlook have remained an important factor for regional markets. 

The trend across Asian equities suggests Indian markets could see a muted or cautious start, rather than a sharp directional move. Domestic investors are likely to remain particularly sensitive to movements in crude oil, given India’s dependence on imported energy and the implications of higher oil prices for inflation, the rupee and corporate margins. 

US Futures Edge Higher 

US stock futures were marginally higher, with Nasdaq futures up 0.3% offering some support to global risk appetite. Investors have increasingly been positioning for a potentially less restrictive US monetary policy outlook, while softer economic indicators have strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could have room to ease policy. 

The relatively resilient US market backdrop could help limit downside pressure on Indian equities at the open. However, gains in US futures remained modest, indicating that investors are not aggressively adding risk amid uncertainty surrounding the Middle East. 

A sustained rise in crude prices could also revive concerns over inflation and complicate the outlook for interest-rate cuts. 

Oil Prices Rise As Hormuz Traffic Slows 

The biggest immediate concern for global markets remains crude oil. Oil prices moved higher on Monday after US-Iran peace talks stalled and shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply. 

Brent crude rose 0.5% to $88.9 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 0.15% to $82.5. Both benchmarks had climbed more than 5% last week following attacks on tankers and an oil refinery in the region. 

The disruption to shipping has intensified concerns over global energy supplies. According to data cited by Reuters, only five commodity vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday and none on Sunday, compared with 31 vessels during the previous weekend. 

The Strait is one of the world’s most important energy corridors, carrying a significant portion of global oil supplies. Any prolonged disruption could therefore keep crude prices elevated and increase inflationary pressures across major economies. 

What It Means For Indian Markets 

Higher crude prices are a key negative for India because of the country’s dependence on imported oil. A sustained rise in Brent could put pressure on the rupee, increase inflation risks and weigh on the margins of oil-consuming industries. 

On the other hand, upstream energy companies could remain relatively better placed if crude prices stay elevated. The broader market, however, could remain volatile as investors assess the potential economic impact of the disruption. 

Overall, Indian equities are likely to see a flat-to-cautious opening on Monday, with marginally positive US futures providing some support but higher crude and Middle East tensions limiting risk appetite. The Nifty and Sensex could remain range-bound initially, with the rupee, Brent crude and developments around US-Iran negotiations emerging as the key triggers for the session. Any fresh escalation or further deterioration in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could quickly push global markets into a risk-off mode. 

Source

• Exchanges