HSIE Results Daily: 25/05/2026: GAIL (India)
By Prime Research | Published at: May 25, 2026 01:04 PM IST
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Supply chain disruption weighs on profitability
We downgrade GAIL (India) from Buy to ADD with a target price of INR174, owing to expected fall in NG transmission volumes, deferment in petrochemical projects, and margin pressure in petchem segment due to lower utilization and higher gas prices.
The supply constrained gas market has resulted in increased gas prices globally. Government directives continue to prioritize gas supply to key sectors. GAIL expects normalization in LNG supply by FY27.
- Q4FY26 performance: Revenue stood at INR347bn while EBITDA came at INR11.5bn. PAT declined sharply due to higher-than-expected operating expenses.
- Capex in FY27: Total estimated capex outlay will be INR116bn, including pipeline and petrochemical expansion projects.
- Petchem: GAIL is evaluating use of ethane as feedstock and progressing on C2-C3 pipeline expansion.
- NG transmission: Q4 volume was down due to supply constraints. FY27 guidance suggests softer transmission volume outlook.
- LPG transmission and marketing: LPG transmission volumes improved, while gas marketing outlook remains volatile due to geopolitical challenges.
- Valuation: FY27/FY28 EPS estimates were cut due to lower NG transmission volume and delay in petchem projects.
Standalone Financial Summary
| YE March (INR bn) | 4QFY26 | 3QFY26 | QoQ (%) | 4QFY25 | YoY (%) | FY26 | FY27E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 347.3 | 340.5 | 2.1 | 356.85 | (2.6) | 1,442.45 | 1,573.18 | 1,635.86 |
| EBITDA | 11.52 | 26.55 | (56.6) | 32.16 | (64.2) | 115.40 | 101.23 | 114.40 |
| PAT | 12.62 | 16.03 | (21.2) | 20.49 | (38.4) | 76.27 | 63.01 | 70.75 |
| EPS (INR) | 1.9 | 2.4 | (21.2) | 3.1 | (38.4) | 11.6 | 9.6 | 10.8 |
| P/E (x) | 16.9 | 15.1 | ||||||
| EV / EBITDA (x) | 11.8 | 10.0 | ||||||
| RoCE (%) | 6.6 | 6.9 | ||||||
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Changes in Estimates
| YE March | Old | New | (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA FY26E | 126.19 | 101.23 | (19.8) |
| EBITDA FY27E | 130.75 | 114.40 | (12.5) |
| EPS FY27E | 12.64 | 9.58 | (24.2) |
| EPS FY28E | 12.66 | 10.76 | (15.0) |
ADD
| CMP (as on 22 May 2026) | INR 162 |
| Target Price | INR 174 |
| NIFTY | 23,719 |
Key Changes
| OLD | NEW | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | BUY | ADD |
| Price Target | INR 196 | INR 174 |
| EPS change FY27E | -24.2% | -15.0% |
Key Stock Data
| Bloomberg code | GAIL IN |
| No. of Shares (mn) | 6,575 |
| MCap (INR bn) | 1,059 |
| 6m avg traded value (INR mn) | 2,117 |
| 52 Week high / low | INR 203 / 134 |
Stock Performance (%)
| 3M | 6M | 12M | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute (%) | (4.4) | (12.0) | (16.4) |
| Relative (%) | 4.6 | (0.4) | (9.5) |
Shareholding Pattern (%)
| Dec-25 | Mar-26 | |
|---|---|---|
| Promoters | 51.88 | 51.88 |
| FIs & Local MFs | 19.86 | 20.60 |
| FPIs | 14.07 | 13.04 |
| Government | 7.61 | 7.61 |
| Public & Others | 6.58 | 6.87 |
| Pledged Shares | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Source:
- BSE
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