HSL Prime Research Commodity Daily Report 02 July 2026

Global Market Round Up

Gold prices extended their recovery on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a less hawkish-than-expected assessment of the inflation outlook, easing concerns that the central bank may need to raise interest rates in the near term. Spot gold traded around $4,050 an ounce after rebounding in the previous session and snapping a two-day losing streak.

Warsh noted that inflation expectations had moderated over the past month, suggesting there was no immediate urgency to tighten monetary policy further. While he reaffirmed the Federal Reserve’s commitment to restoring inflation to its 2% target, markets took comfort from the absence of any strong signal pointing to imminent rate hikes. The softer tone weighed on the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, providing support to non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.

Meanwhile, recent U.S. economic data painted a mixed picture. Private-sector hiring slowed more than expected in June, while manufacturing activity continued to expand for a sixth consecutive month, albeit at a slower pace. Investors are now awaiting the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for fresh clues on the strength of the labor market and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

Crude oil prices extended their decline on Thursday, with WTI crude falling to around $68 per barrel, its lowest level since late February, as improving supply conditions in the Middle East continued to weigh on market sentiment. The steady recovery in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and signs of progress in indirect U.S.–Iran negotiations further reduced concerns over supply disruptions.

Supply expectations also improved after U.S. officials indicated that crude flows through the strategic waterway had recovered to more than 10 million barrels per day, supported by enhanced security measures. At the same time, UAE exports have returned to pre-conflict levels, while Iranian crude shipments have surged following the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade. Record Russian exports have added to the growing supply overhang, contributing to a build-up in global inventories and keeping pressure on oil prices.

Natural gas prices remained range-bound as strong cooling demand from this week’s hot weather was offset by ample production and comfortable inventory levels. While rising temperatures have supported near-term consumption, abundant supply has limited the market’s upside. Traders are now focused on the latest EIA weekly storage report, which is expected to show another healthy inventory build.

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