Gift Nifty Points to a Cautiously Positive Open for Markets on Thursday

Mumbai, July 1: Indian markets are likely to open on a cautiously bullish note on Thursday (July 2) after Gift Nifty was seen trading up 41 points or 0.17 per cent at 24,044.00 at the time of writing this report. 

The near-month July 28, 20 26 futures contract of Gift Nifty opened the session at 24,034 and hit a session high of 24,113 before consolidating lower with the contract trading in a tight range just above 24,000 through the afternoon. The intraday low for the session was pegged at 23,935, which witnessed a brief bout of nervousness among bulls in the early trade hours before buyers came back into the picture and pushed the contract decisively above the key psychological support of 24,000.  

The more dated August 25, 20 26 contract on the other hand traded in the negative territory closing lower by 118 points or 0.49 per cent at 24,127.50. A firmer near-term contract combined with weakness in the more dated month suggests that while short-term sentiment may have improved intraday, traders remain cautious into the medium-term. 

Gift Nifty Intraday Chart: Dips, Then Bulls Step in to Push Past 24,000 

Gift Nifty intraday chart on Wednesday printed a sharp V-shaped recovery that bodes well for a bullish open on Thursday morning. The near-month contract opened the session at 24,034 and traded narrowly in the sideways range of 23,970 to 24,000 through the early morning trade before dipping sharply to its session low of 23,935 around 9:30 am. The intraday weakness was short-lived as buyers stepped in strongly around 10: 00 am, pushing the contract higher to the day’s high of 24,113 by around 10:30 am.  

After hitting the session high, the contract saw a gradual correction through the noon and early afternoon session, trading in a tight range between 24,040 and 24,100 through most of the post-noon session. Gift Nifty is currently trading just above 24,000 at 24,044 and has stabilized well above its lows from Wednesday’s session and is in-line with where it opened at the bell. The key takeaway from Wednesday’s session for Thursday’s 9: 15 am open is that bulls stepped in strongly to push and hold prices above the key support level of 24,000 through the afternoon. 

Iran War Update: Doha Talks Outcome Holds the Key 

The Iran-US conflict remains the dominant geopolitical overhang for Indian markets, and Wednesday brought no definitive resolution. Iranian and U.S. negotiating teams were both present in Doha, though Tehran’s Foreign Ministry continued to stress that its delegation’s presence in Qatar had no relation to any bilateral engagement with Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking from the White House, offered an ambiguous assessment, saying the Doha meeting would be perhaps important, perhaps not. The interim ceasefire framework, which has held in a fragile form since June 17, has been repeatedly tested by fresh missile exchanges and ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. While Middle East oil producers have continued loading crude and LNG shipments despite the attacks, the resumption of full maritime traffic through the strait remains uncertain, keeping global oil prices volatile and Indian market sentiment on edge. Any breakthrough or breakdown in the Doha engagement could rapidly reprice risk across Indian equities at Thursday’s open, with energy, banking and auto stocks the most likely to react sharply in either direction. 

Gift Nifty is currently trading above 24,000 and up 41 points or 0.17 per cent at the time of writing. If overseas cues from the U.S. and Asia do not change dramatically overnight, markets are expected to open on a cautiously bullish note at 9:15 am on Thursday, July 2. If the positive price action holds through the open, Nifty 50 will look to settle above 24,000 at the open. The first level of resistance comes in at 24,113, which was the session high traded by Gift Nifty on Wednesday. Support is initially pegged at 23,935, which was the intraday low. 

This prediction, however, will hold true only if the macro and geopolitical conditions remain broadly as they stand now. An unexpected surprise or a major development in the Doha talks, further escalation in tensions between Iran and the U.S, a surprise change in rate cut rhetoric by the U.S. Fed or domestic news flow can negate the cautiously bullish setup gift Nifty is outlining for Thursday’s open. 

Source

• nseix.com