HSL Prime Research Commodity Daily Report: 11 September 2026

Global Market Round Up

Gold traded near $4,300 an ounce on Friday after falling nearly 2% in the previous session, while silver hovered around $63.50 after declining more than 5%. Both metals remained under pressure ahead of the U.S. CPI report, which could further shape expectations for a rate hike next week.

The weakness followed hotter-than-expected August PPI data, which lifted the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike to around 71% from 61% before the release. Rising oil prices amid the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict have also revived inflation concerns, while higher Treasury yields added pressure on non-yielding assets. Both gold and silver are heading for their third consecutive weekly decline.

Crude oil rose above $103 a barrel on Thursday, reaching its highest level since May 19, as escalating Middle East tensions heightened concerns over prolonged disruptions to global energy supplies. The conflict has broadened this week, with Iran-backed Houthi forces targeting energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, while Iran reportedly struck U.S. warships and tankers in the Persian Gulf. The U.S., meanwhile, said it had targeted 10 Iranian tankers.

Supply concerns were further supported by a sharp 1.9 million-barrel-per-day decline in Saudi Arabia’s August production, record-high tanker rates and a 300,000-barrel drop in U.S. crude inventories. However, the EIA’s higher 2027 U.S. production forecast of 14.3 million barrels per day could limit the upside. Meanwhile, reports that the Iran conflict could extend into 2029 have further reinforced the geopolitical risk premium in crude prices.

Natural gas futures settled modestly higher after the EIA reported a fourth consecutive below-average weekly storage build. However, the 40 Bcf injection was above market expectations, limiting the upside. With weather-related demand continuing to ease and consumption reduced over the Labor Day weekend, storage injections are expected to increase from next week, which could weigh on prices.

Copper edged higher in early Asian trading after declining in the previous session. Prices fell on Thursday after reports that U.S. officials had delayed a decision on potential tariffs on refined copper imports amid concerns over inflation. The delay could ease market tightness, particularly after U.S. traders accumulated large inventories ahead of the proposed tariffs. COMEX warehouse stocks have risen 55% this year to around 768,000 tons, suggesting ample near-term supply and potentially limiting further gains.