HSL Prime Research Commodity Daily Report 13 August 2026

GLOBAL MARKET ROUND UP

Precious metals remained near recent highs on Thursday after softer U.S. inflation data reduced expectations for near-term monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. U.S. consumer inflation slowed for a second consecutive month in July, rising just 0.1% month-on-month and easing to 3.4% annually.

The data prompted markets to scale back expectations for a September rate hike, with the probability of a 25-basis-point increase falling to around 40%. Precious metals also found support from a pullback in crude oil prices after a five-session rally, easing concerns over energy-driven inflation. Market attention now turns to today’s U.S. producer price data for further clues on underlying inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

Crude oil prices fell below $83 per barrel on Thursday, snapping a five-session rally as a larger-than-expected increase in U.S. inventories weighed on prices. EIA data showed commercial crude stockpiles rose by 17.4 million barrels last week, marking the largest weekly build since early 2023 and raising concerns over the near-term supply-demand balance.

Geopolitical risks remained elevated after President Donald Trump said the U.S. had “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration is also considering tougher measures against Iran, including expanded sanctions and a naval blockade aimed at restricting Iranian oil exports.

Meanwhile, the IEA’s latest monthly report projected a global oil supply shortfall of around 1.8 million barrels per day this quarter, highlighting the potential for tighter conditions if the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt regional energy flows.

Natural gas futures climbed to a two-week high on Wednesday, supported by stronger daily flows to LNG export terminals and forecasts for hotter weather and higher demand over the next two weeks. Market attention now shifts to today’s EIA storage report, with traders weighing seasonal demand against still-comfortable supply levels.

Copper prices edged lower in Asian trading as signs of cooling demand in China weighed on sentiment. The Yangshan premium fell to around $96 per tonne from $115 per tonne last month, indicating that higher copper prices have started to curb import demand and prompted Chinese buyers to adopt a more cautious approach.