HSL Prime Research Commodity Daily Report: 28 August 2026

Global Market Round Up

Gold has consolidated around $4,600 following its recent rally, as market participants adopt a cautious approach while awaiting Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole. The central question is whether the Fed will continue its restrictive stance in response to ongoing inflation or recognize the potential for monetary easing. A hawkish message could push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, creating near-term pressure on gold. Conversely, any dovish signal could revive expectations of rate cuts and support another leg higher in precious metals. Markets currently see around a 65% probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September, while the probability of a rate increase by December remains above 70% following hotter-than-expected inflation data.

However, the broader fiscal backdrop remains supportive for gold. Treasury debt buybacks and concerns over U.S. debt sustainability continue to strengthen the debasement narrative, limiting the downside even when interest-rate expectations turn less favorable.

In energy markets, attention is shifting partly from the Middle East to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with WTI crude holding above $83 per barrel. Further attacks on Russian refineries and ports could disrupt crude and refined-product exports, tighten global supply and provide upside risk to prices. Meanwhile, Middle East tensions remain a key risk. Reports that U.S. President Donald Trump is not interested in returning to the terms of the June memorandum of understanding have reduced expectations of a near-term diplomatic breakthrough with Iran. This may help limit downside in crude prices, as markets reassess the prospects for a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a subsequent increase in regional oil flows.

Natural gas surged to a five-week high, supported by a smaller-than-expected storage build and forecasts for continued hot weather. EIA data showed inventories rose by 15 Bcf for the week ended August 21, below the 20 Bcf market expectation and the 33 Bcf five-year average.

The outlook for cooling demand also remains supportive, with forecasts pointing to record temperatures across the Southwest and above-normal temperatures across much of the U.S. during September 1–10. This is likely to keep power-sector demand elevated and provide near-term support to natural gas prices.