HSL Prime Research Commodity Weekly Report: 12 October 2026

Global Market Round Up

Commodity markets regained momentum last week, with precious metals, crude oil and most industrial metals closing higher. The recovery came despite a modest strengthening in the U.S. dollar, while global equity markets also improved.

Gold futures ended the week modestly higher, snapping a two-week losing streak, as bargain buying emerged after prices fell to a two-month low earlier in the week. Gold gained around 1.25%, while silver also recovered and closed higher. The early decline in crude oil prices provided some support to bullion by easing near-term inflation concerns, although the interest-rate backdrop remains challenging and leaves precious metals vulnerable to renewed selling pressure. Market focus now shifts to this week’s U.S. inflation data, with the CPI report likely to be the key catalyst for the next major move in gold. A hotter-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes, pushing Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher and potentially pressuring gold back towards the psychological $4,000 level. Conversely, softer inflation could ease rate-hike expectations and provide further support to bullion.

We expect gold to maintain a constructive bias, with the $4,000–$4,050 zone likely to act as a key support area where bargain buying could emerge. The risk-reward remains favorable for the bullish side near these levels, although the upcoming CPI data will be crucial in determining the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and, consequently, the direction of the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields and precious metals.

Crude oil prices edged higher towards $92 a barrel on Friday, holding gains from the previous session as mounting supply risks offset temporary relief after the U.S. indicated it would not escalate the conflict with Iran this month. Supply concerns intensified as tanker freight costs surged and Strait of Hormuz traffic declined amid vessel attacks. Middle East disruptions also curtailed OPEC+ output, while the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve remained near record lows. Meanwhile, Hurricane Isaias forced a shutdown of more than 60% of Gulf of Mexico crude production. Attention now turns to this week’s OPEC and IEA monthly reports, which are expected to provide fresh insights into global supply, demand and inventory trends. The reports could offer further direction for crude oil prices amid elevated geopolitical and supply-side risks.

Natural gas futures ended the week up more than 6.0%. Market focus is on Hurricane Isaias as it approaches the U.S. Gulf Coast and is expected to make landfall in Alabama Friday evening. The storm led to around 1.3 Bcf/d of output being shut in as of midday after producers evacuated offshore platforms.

The coming week will be data-heavy, with U.S. inflation, retail sales and comments from Federal Reserve officials likely to drive market direction.