HSL Prime Research Commodity Weekly Report 17 August 2026

Global Market Round Up

Commodity markets ended the week on a broadly positive note, with precious metals, crude oil and most industrial metals registering gains. The market continued to balance expectations for U.S. monetary policy against improving risk sentiment and developments in the global growth outlook.

Gold recovered from profit-taking remained on track for a second consecutive weekly gain following its recent breakout from a consolidation range. The metal continues to benefit from reduced expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening following the US inflation report, which has kept pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar. Silver also reached a seven-week high earlier in the week, although its momentum moderated in the latter sessions. Nevertheless, silver is also positioned for a second straight weekly advance. From a broader perspective, a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or further escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict would significantly increase geopolitical and energy-market risks. Such an environment could strengthen gold’s appeal as a safe-haven and reserve-diversification asset. Continued geopolitical uncertainty may also encourage central banks to maintain or increase gold purchases as they seek to diversify reserves and reduce exposure to potential disruptions in global trade and energy markets. Technically, the outlook for precious metals remains constructive, but precious metals are likely to remain sensitive to movements in the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, crude oil prices, and developments in the ongoing U.S.-Iran situation.

Crude oil prices surged more than 5% last week as the market continued to weigh geopolitical risks against the outlook for global supply and demand. While concerns over potential supply disruptions remain a key source of support, the sustainability of the rally will increasingly depend on whether elevated prices begin to weigh on consumption and demand expectations. Geopolitical risks remain a major upside factor, with the U.S. increasing economic pressure on Iran in an effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Additional sanctions and continued uncertainty surrounding the strategic waterway could further tighten the global supply outlook. Earlier last week, the International Energy Agency also warned of a deeper global supply deficit, forecasting the widest shortfall of 2026 and the largest in five years.

Industrial metals maintained their positive momentum, with copper, zinc, and lead all posting gains. Attention now turns to upcoming economic data from China and the U.S., particularly industrial production, manufacturing activity, and credit conditions, for fresh signals on demand and the broader outlook for base metals.

The commodity market starts the new week on a constructive note, with the outlook hinging on key economic data and geopolitical developments. China’s data, FOMC minutes and U.S. manufacturing indicators will be closely watched for fresh market direction.