HSL Prime Research Commodity Weekly Report 29 June 2026

Global Market Round Up

Commodity markets continued their recent decline last week, with most major commodities ending in negative territory. A stronger U.S. dollar and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates remained the dominant themes, weighing on investor sentiment. The sell-off intensified after the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting reaffirmed that policymakers remain focused on bringing inflation back to target. The hawkish tone pushed precious and industrial metals to multi-week lows, while the U.S. Dollar Index climbed to a 13-month high.

Persistent inflation and resilient U.S. economic data have strengthened expectations that interest rates could remain elevated for an extended period, with markets even pricing in the possibility of another rate hike later this year. A stronger dollar has made dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for overseas buyers, increasing pressure on prices. Spot gold ended the week down 1.61% at $4,088 per ounce, while silver tumbled 8.86% to $59.15 per ounce. The near-term outlook for precious metals remains weak, with selling pressure likely to re-emerge on any recovery toward resistance levels.

Crude oil posted its steepest weekly decline in several months, with WTI crude falling to a fresh four-month low. The sharp drop was driven by the rapid normalization of oil exports from the Persian Gulf following easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz recovered significantly, with crude exports estimated to have returned to nearly 75% of pre-conflict levels. The increase in tanker movements added millions of barrels back into global supply, removing much of the geopolitical risk premium that had supported oil prices earlier in the month.

However, oil markets remained highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. Fresh military escalation involving the United States and Iran over the weekend revived supply concerns, pushing U.S. crude futures back above the $70 per barrel mark in Asian trading on Monday. While geopolitical headlines may continue to generate short-term volatility, the broader market remains focused on improving supply conditions and concerns over slowing global demand.

Looking ahead, investor attention will gradually shift from geopolitics toward a series of important U.S. economic releases that could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision.

Commodities (Weekly Performance)

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