India VIX Falls 2.4% as Volatility Stays Near Recent Lows 

Mumbai, Aug 13: India VIX closed at 11.42 on Thursday, down 0.28 points or 2.4% from the previous close of 11.69, as volatility remained contained despite continued weakness in Indian equities. The index opened at 11.69, touched an intraday high of 12.19 and fell to a low of 10.65. Its 52-week range stands at 8.72–28.90, while its year-to-date return is 20.46%. 

India VIX Falls 2.4% as Intraday Volatility Stays within 10.65–12.19 

India VIX moved through a broad intraday range on August 13 before ending lower at 11.42. The index initially moved up from its opening level of 11.69 to a high of 12.19, but subsequently fell as low as 10.65 before recovering moderately towards the close. 

The decline extended the recent easing in volatility. India VIX had closed at approximately 11.69 on August 12, after standing around 11.86 on August 11 and approximately 12.25 on August 10. The latest reading therefore keeps the index below the 12 level for the second consecutive session. 

The technical rating remained Neutral, while the index stayed well below its 52-week high of 28.90 and above its 52-week low of 8.72. 

Nifty Weakness Did Not Trigger a Volatility Spike 

The latest India VIX move came as the Indian equity market remained under pressure. The Nifty was trading around the 24,300–24,400 zone during Thursday’s session and was heading towards a third consecutive session of decline. At the opening, the Nifty 50 was down around 0.30% at 24,364.3, while the Sensex was lower by approximately 0.12% at 77,873.12. 

The weakness followed declines in the previous sessions, with foreign institutional selling and geopolitical concerns among the factors weighing on the market. 

However, the decline in equities did not translate into a corresponding rise in India VIX. The latest movement instead showed the combination of Nifty weakness and falling implied volatility, indicating that the market’s volatility measure remained contained even as equity prices came under pressure. 

FII Selling Added Pressure but Did Not Lift India VIX 

Foreign institutional investor (FII) selling remained one of the key domestic factors affecting the market on Thursday. Continued foreign outflows can add pressure to benchmark indices and contribute to increased market uncertainty, particularly when combined with weak global cues. 

At the same time, domestic institutional activity provided a counterweight to foreign selling. The combination of continued FII pressure and domestic participation helped shape the day’s equity movement without producing a disorderly decline. 

This distinction remained important for India VIX. While selling pressure affected the Nifty, the market did not experience a sharp enough or sufficiently rapid fall to produce a significant increase in implied volatility. 

Rupee at ₹95.40 Added to Market Pressure 

The Indian rupee opened at around ₹95.40 per US dollar on August 13, compared with the previous close of ₹95.33. The currency remained under pressure amid elevated crude prices, foreign fund outflows and geopolitical uncertainty. 

The rupee’s movement was particularly relevant because India relies on imported crude oil. A weaker currency can increase the domestic cost of imported energy when international oil prices are elevated, adding to concerns around inflation and corporate costs. 

However, the rupee did not experience a disorderly move during the session. The absence of a sharp currency decline limited another potential source of immediate volatility for Indian equities and the India VIX. 

Brent Falls Below $90 as Oil Pressure Eases 

Crude oil provided a more supportive development for volatility on August 13. Brent crude fell by around $1.66 to $87.32 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined approximately $1.62 to $81.65. 

The decline was significant because Brent had been trading around the $90 mark in the previous sessions, raising concerns for oil-importing economies such as India. 

The easing in crude prices reduced the immediate pressure from higher energy costs. However, the geopolitical backdrop remained unsettled, meaning oil continued to be an important market variable. 

US-Iran Tensions Kept Strait of Hormuz Risk Elevated 

The US-Iran conflict remained unresolved, with uncertainty surrounding negotiations and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz continuing to affect the market. 

The Strait remains particularly important for global energy markets because disruption to shipping through the region can affect crude supply and prices. Continued uncertainty therefore remained a potential source of volatility for oil and, indirectly, Indian equities. 

However, the absence of a fresh major escalation meant that the geopolitical risk did not translate into a new volatility shock on August 13. The decline in crude below $90 also reduced some of the immediate pressure from the geopolitical situation. 

US Inventories Push Oil Lower Despite Middle East Risks 

US crude inventories provided another factor behind the decline in oil prices. US crude stocks increased by 17.4 million barrels, taking inventories to approximately 424.4 million barrels. The increase was reported as the largest weekly build since January 2023. 

The inventory build created downward pressure on crude prices despite continuing geopolitical uncertainty. This helped offset some of the concerns arising from the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz situation. 

Lower crude prices, in turn, reduced immediate concerns around India’s import costs and the pressure that elevated oil prices can place on the rupee and inflation. 

US CPI Adds Support as Inflation Pressure Remains Limited 

US July consumer inflation also formed part of the global backdrop. The supplied data showed that US consumer prices barely increased in July, while gasoline costs declined for a second consecutive month. 

The relatively limited inflation increase reduced the immediate pressure surrounding US monetary-policy expectations. The previous weakening in US employment data had also led markets to reduce expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. 

For Indian markets, the global interest-rate environment is relevant through movements in US yields, the dollar and foreign capital flows. The absence of a major inflation surprise therefore provided another factor countering geopolitical and domestic market pressures. 

August Seasonality Shows India VIX Usually Gains 

The August seasonality data provides additional context for the current reading. India VIX has recorded positive returns in 12 out of 18 years during August. 

The month recorded a maximum positive change of 68.84% in 2015, with an average positive change of 18.10%. The maximum negative change was -11.26% in 2016, while the average negative change was -5.46%. The overall average change for August stands at 10.25%. 

The current decline therefore comes despite August historically showing a tendency towards positive India VIX returns. 

Pivot Levels Place India VIX at 11.42 Near Support 

The classic pivot point for India VIX stands at 11.68, with resistance levels at 12.10, 12.52 and 12.94. The corresponding support levels are 11.26, 10.84 and 10.42. 

The Fibonacci levels place resistance at 12.00, 12.20 and 12.52, with support at 11.36, 11.16 and 10.84. Camarilla levels are 11.77, 11.84 and 11.92 on the upside, and 11.61, 11.54 and 11.46 on the downside. 

At 11.42, the index closed below the classic pivot point and remained close to the Fibonacci support level of 11.36. 

India VIX at 11.42 Shows Volatility Remains Controlled 

India VIX’s latest decline shows that equity weakness has not been accompanied by a corresponding surge in expected market volatility. The index remains around the 11–12 zone despite FII selling, rupee pressure, geopolitical uncertainty and elevated crude prices. 

The key change on August 13 was the easing in crude below $90, alongside the absence of a fresh major geopolitical escalation and relatively limited US inflation pressure. Together, these developments helped keep volatility contained during the session. 

India VIX closed at 11.42, down 2.4%, after moving between 10.65 and 12.19. The index remains below 12, while its 52-week range is 8.72–28.90. The session’s classic pivot stands at 11.68, with 11.26 as the first support and 12.10 as the first resistance. 

Source 

• https://www.nseindia.com/reports-indices-historical-vix