Oil Prices Today, October 12, 2026: Brent Falls 1.5% To $103, WTI Drops 1.8% To $90.2; Middle East Risks Persist

Mumbai, October 12: Crude oil prices declined on Monday as expectations of additional Russian diesel supplies and a proposed energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine eased concerns over global fuel availability. However, persistent hostilities in the Middle East and fresh attacks on commercial tankers continued to threaten supply routes, keeping oil prices elevated and investors wary of further disruptions. 

Brent crude futures fell 1.5% to $103 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined 1.8% to $90.2. The retreat followed heightened volatility in the previous session, when escalating attacks in the Middle East fuelled concerns over the security of oil shipments and the possibility of further disruptions to global supplies. 

For India, one of the world’s largest crude oil importers, the decline could offer some relief on the import bill and inflation outlook. However, crude prices above $100 per barrel for the international benchmark continue to pose risks to the rupee, domestic fuel costs and corporate margins. 

Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire Raises Supply Hopes 

Both contracts dropped after Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy ceasefire. Source: Oilprice.com 

Market sentiment received some support after US President Donald Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy ceasefire. The announcement followed a separate deal under which Russia would supply additional diesel to help ease global fuel shortages. 

Trump said Russia would initially provide more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel, followed by another 500,000 tonnes in November and further shipments thereafter. The prospect of additional supplies helped ease concerns over tightness in refined fuel markets, with European gasoil futures also declining. 

However, uncertainty remains over the implementation and durability of the proposed ceasefire. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said further details were needed, while Russia had not publicly confirmed the arrangement at the time of the Reuters report. 

The potential increase in Russian fuel supplies could ease some pressure on international markets, particularly diesel, where disruptions to refining capacity and export flows have contributed to elevated prices. Nevertheless, the scale and timing of additional shipments remain important variables for traders assessing whether the improvement in availability will translate into sustained price relief. 

Also Read: How To Invest In Crude Oil

Middle East Conflict, Tanker Attacks Keep Prices Elevated 

Despite the softer prices, geopolitical risks continued to underpin the crude market. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis claimed responsibility for a weekend strike on Riyadh’s international airport, while Saudi authorities reported another attack on the facility. Trump said Washington was considering joining Saudi strikes against the Houthis, raising concerns about a wider regional escalation. 

The attacks have added to tensions stemming from the broader conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel. Any further deterioration could threaten energy infrastructure and shipping routes across the Gulf, increasing the risk premium embedded in crude prices. 

Commercial shipping also remained a concern. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported that a tanker was struck by a drone near Oman’s Sohar anchorage, while another vessel was damaged by an unidentified projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. 

The waterway is a critical corridor for global energy trade, and sustained disruption could constrain crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers. Although oil shipments through the region had recovered during September, renewed attacks threaten to undermine that improvement and raise transportation, insurance and freight costs. 

What Lower Crude Prices Mean For India 

A sustained decline in international crude prices would be beneficial for India by reducing the cost of imports and potentially easing pressure on inflation and the current account balance. Lower oil prices can also support sectors such as aviation, paints, chemicals and oil marketing companies by reducing input costs, although the benefits vary by company and pricing conditions. 

However, the latest decline does not eliminate the risks facing the domestic economy. With Brent still around $103 per barrel, any renewed escalation in the Middle East or disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could reverse the fall quickly. 

Investors will therefore continue to track geopolitical developments, Russian fuel exports and global supply conditions for clearer signals on the direction of crude prices. 

Source

• oilprice.com