India VIX Rises 4.29% to 13.61 as Geopolitical Tensions and Profit Booking Lift Market Volatility

Mumbai, June 29: India VIX closed higher on Monday, reflecting increased caution in the domestic equity market as geopolitical developments in the Middle East, firmer crude oil prices and broad-based profit booking prompted traders to hedge against near-term uncertainty.

The volatility index settled at 13.61, up 0.56 points or 4.29% from the previous close of 13.05, after moving between an intraday low of 12.91 and a high of 14.07. Although volatility strengthened during the session, India VIX remained well below its 52-week high of 28.90, indicating that market participants were pricing in moderate rather than extreme uncertainty.

India VIX Climbs 4.29% as Intraday Swing Reaches 14.07

India VIX began the session unchanged at 13.05, matching its previous close, before witnessing sharp fluctuations throughout the trading day.

The index climbed to 13.91 during early trade, representing an increase of 6.57%, before easing to 13.60 in late morning. It briefly moderated to 13.38, but buying in volatility returned during the afternoon, pushing the index to 13.83 and later 13.87, before ending the session at 13.61, up 4.29%.

The day’s movement kept the volatility gauge within a trading band of 12.91–14.07, while its year-to-date return stood at 43.57%, highlighting a notable increase in volatility compared with the beginning of the year.

Iran-US Conflict and Higher Crude Prices Drive Volatility Higher

The rise in India VIX coincided with renewed geopolitical tensions following fresh military confrontations involving Iran and the United States over the weekend. Reports of US strikes on Iranian military targets after retaliatory attacks near the Strait of Hormuz heightened concerns over global stability.

At the same time, Brent crude oil for the August contract advanced by 84 cents, or 1.16%, to $73.44 per barrel, adding to concerns surrounding inflation and economic activity. Against this backdrop, market participants increasingly used hedging strategies, resulting in higher demand for volatility protection during the trading session.

Sensex Drops 386 Points as Rising VIX Accompanies Market Weakness

The increase in India VIX unfolded alongside weakness across the broader equity market. The Sensex declined by 0.48% or 372.10 points to close at 76,728.37. The Nifty 50 slipped below the 24,000 mark to settle at 23,946.25. Market breadth remained negative, with 1,663 stocks advancing on the BSE, while 2,622 declined. Sector-wise, Nifty Media extended losses for a second consecutive session by falling 1.26%, automobile stocks witnessed profit booking, and PSU Bank shares declined 1.35%. In contrast, the pharmaceutical sector outperformed, registering gains of around 1.25% during the session.

Derivatives Positioning Reflects Elevated Near-Term Market Caution

Activity in the derivatives segment also reflected heightened attention to near-term market movements. Nifty Futures, expiring on 30 June, traded at 23,961, representing a discount of 14 points to the spot Nifty level.

In the options market, the highest Call Open Interest was concentrated at the 24,100 strike, while the highest Put Open Interest remained at the 24,000 strike, indicating the key levels being tracked by derivatives participants during the session.

Institutional flow data from the previous trading day also remained positive, with Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) recording net equity purchases of around ₹384 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought equities worth approximately ₹5,748 crore. Total DII net buying during the previous week stood at ₹11,101 crore.

Technical Levels Show Neutral Trend Despite Volatility Increase

Despite Monday’s rise, India VIX continued to display a Neutral technical trend on the daily timeframe. The previous trading session’s pivot calculations placed the Classic Pivot Point at 12.95, with resistance levels positioned at 13.48, 13.90, and 14.43, while support levels stood at 12.53, 12.00, and 11.58.

Fibonacci pivot calculations showed resistance at 13.32, 13.54, and 13.90, with support at 12.59, 12.37, and 12.00. Camarilla levels identified resistance between 13.14 and 13.31, while immediate support ranged from 12.96 to 12.79, providing reference points based on the previous day’s trading range.

June Performance Highlights Moderate Volatility Despite Sharp Rebound

Historical seasonality indicates that India VIX has delivered negative returns during 11 out of the last 18 June months. The average monthly change for June stands at -7.30%, with the highest positive move of 9.45% recorded in 2011, while the steepest decline reached -43.90% in 2024.

During June 2026, India VIX eased to around 13.73 on 16 June after geopolitical concerns moderated, rose intraday to approximately 13.64 on 19 June amid weakness in information technology stocks, declined to 13.05 on 25 June as markets stabilised, and rebounded to 13.61 on 29 June as fresh global developments and higher crude oil prices renewed market caution.

Throughout the session, analysts noted that the rise in volatility reflected increased hedging activity rather than conditions associated with elevated market stress, with India VIX remaining below the 15 and 20 levels commonly monitored for higher volatility.

India VIX closed at 13.61, up 4.29%, after fluctuating between 12.91 and 14.07 during Monday’s session. The increase coincided with geopolitical developments, firmer crude oil prices, profit booking in equities and higher hedging activity, while the index continued to remain below levels historically associated with heightened market stress, ending the day with a Neutral technical trend.

Source

• https://www.nseindia.com/reports-indices-historical-vix