India VIX Rises 8.99% to 11.31 as Global Risks Build

Mumbai, Sept 24: India VIX rose 0.93 points, or 8.99%, to 11.31 by 10:11 AM IST on Thursday, after opening at 10.34, against the previous close of 10.35. The volatility index touched an intraday high of 11.51 and a low of 10.34, as higher US Treasury yields, crude oil above $100 a barrel, weaker global equities and geopolitical uncertainty shaped the opening session. 

India VIX Jumps 8.99% from a Low Base 

India VIX entered Thursday’s session from a subdued level after falling about 6% in the previous session to around 10.34, having touched 10.22 intraday. The latest reading of 11.31 therefore represents a notable increase from Wednesday’s close, while the index remains within its 52-week range of 8.72 to 28.90. Its year-to-date return stands at 19.20%. 

India VIX measures expected volatility derived from Nifty options rather than the direction of the Nifty itself. As a result, a decline in the benchmark does not automatically produce an equivalent rise in the volatility index. The movement depends on how option prices reflect expectations of future market fluctuations. 

US 10-Year Yield Hits 5.11% as Rates Rise 

The sharp increase in US Treasury yields was the clearest global factor shaping the opening risk environment. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 5.11%, its highest level since 2007, following stronger US economic activity data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. 

The yield increased as markets reassessed expectations for the US monetary policy path. Reports indicated that stronger business activity reduced expectations of an imminent easing in monetary conditions, while comments from Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr added to the reassessment. The US 10-year yield rose 15 basis points to 5.11%, its largest one-day increase since the 2025 tariff announcement. 

Wall Street Falls as Higher Yields Pressure Equities 

US equity markets also closed lower overnight, adding to the cautious global backdrop before Indian trading began. The Dow Jones fell 0.68%, the S&P 500 declined 0.75%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.13%. 

The Nasdaq recorded the largest decline among the three major indices as higher Treasury yields weighed on technology and growth stocks. The combination of rising US borrowing costs and weaker Wall Street indices formed an additional external pressure point for Indian markets at the start of Thursday’s session. 

Brent Above $100 Keeps Oil Risks Elevated 

Crude oil remained another important factor, with Brent around $102.5–$102.6 a barrel and WTI around $91.8–$91.9 during early Thursday trade. Oil prices were lower during the morning, but remained above the $100 Brent threshold after a sharp increase during the previous session. 

For India, the elevated crude price remains linked to the import bill, the rupee, inflation expectations, corporate input costs, oil marketing companies, the current account and expectations surrounding monetary policy. The continued uncertainty around oil prices also remained connected to developments in West Asia. 

US-Iran Tensions Keep Oil Supply Risks In Focus 

US-Iran developments remained a live geopolitical factor during Thursday’s session. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said at the United Nations that Tehran would not surrender to US pressure, while reports indicated that Washington and Tehran remained divided over terms for ending the conflict. 

Diplomatic channels remained open, creating opposing signals for crude markets. The possibility of progress could reduce concerns about supply disruption, while the absence of a clear settlement leaves disruption risks unresolved. Against this backdrop, Brent remained above $100, making the geopolitical situation relevant to the broader market risk environment. 

Japan Yields Rise as Asian Markets Turn Mixed 

Asian markets produced a mixed signal rather than a uniform decline. The Nikkei rose 1.47%–1.73%, while South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.9%. In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.68%, China’s CSI 300 declined 0.73%, and Australia’s ASX 200 dropped 1.2%–1.33%. 

Japanese government bond yields also moved higher, with the 10-year yield reaching about 3.06% and the 30-year yield around 4.12%. The 10-year yield was reported at its highest level since 1996. Japan’s market had also reopened after a three-day holiday, contributing to the divergence in regional performance. 

US-China Talks Offer a Counterweight to Rate Pressure 

US-China developments provided a contrasting element to the broader risk backdrop. Discussions were being closely watched amid reports of movement towards extending the existing trade truce, while US President Donald Trump was meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping. 

The developments offered a potentially stabilising element alongside the pressure from higher US yields, elevated crude prices and geopolitical uncertainty. The combination resulted in a mixed global environment entering India’s trading session rather than a uniformly negative signal across markets. 

GIFT Nifty Signals 182-Point Opening Gap 

Before the Indian market opened, GIFT Nifty indicated a sizeable decline. It was reported around 23,268.50, down approximately 182 points, while another early reading placed it near 23,263, lower by about 186 points. 

The indication compared with Wednesday’s Nifty 50 close of 23,446.80, pointing towards an opening around the 23,250–23,300 region. This placed the Indian market at an important technical level as global developments shaped the opening range. 

Institutional Buying Provides Domestic Market Support 

Domestic institutional activity provided a counterpoint to the weaker external backdrop. On 23 September, Foreign Institutional Investors bought ₹1,617.45 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors bought ₹2,341.46 crore, according to NSE data. 

The flows were recorded before Thursday’s session and formed part of the domestic market context alongside the overnight movement in global equities, bond yields and crude oil. They also came as India VIX remained close to its recent subdued levels. 

NSE Listing Adds A Major Domestic Market Event 

Thursday also marks the scheduled listing of National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. on the BSE. The IPO was heavily subscribed, while approximately 5.48% of pre-offer capital was reported to be freely sellable at launch. 

The listing brings a major market-infrastructure company into the secondary market on the same day as heightened global volatility. Its limited free float is also relevant to the day’s price-discovery process, although the available evidence places the listing as a secondary factor for India VIX compared with US yields, crude oil and broader global risk conditions. 

Technical Levels Show VIX At 11.31 

India VIX’s technical rating was Neutral. The classic pivot levels stood at 10.54, with resistance levels at 10.85, 11.36 and 11.67, while support levels were 10.03, 9.72 and 9.21. Fibonacci resistance levels were 10.85, 11.04 and 11.36, with supports at 10.22, 10.03 and 9.72. 

Camarilla resistance stood at 10.43, 10.50 and 10.58, while support levels were 10.27, 10.20 and 10.12. These levels are calculated from the previous trading day’s price range. 

September VIX History Shows 3.58% Average Change 

Historical seasonality data shows that India VIX has delivered positive returns in 9 of 18 years during September. The month has recorded a maximum positive change of 34.92% in 2018, with an average positive change of 17.10%. Its maximum negative change was -26.10% in 2009, with an average negative change of -9.93%. The overall average September change is 3.58%. 

India VIX Tracks Global And Domestic Risk Signals 

As of 10:11 AM IST, India VIX had risen to 11.31, while the index remained below its 52-week high of 28.90. The session’s key developments included the US 10-year yield at 5.11%, Brent above $100, declines across major US indices, mixed Asian markets, higher Japanese bond yields, continuing US-Iran uncertainty, US-China discussions, domestic institutional buying and the NSE listing. 

The movement also followed a low starting point of around 10.34, making Thursday’s rise a notable change in the volatility index during the opening session. 

As of 10:11 AM IST on 24 September, India VIX stood at 11.31, with US Treasury yields, crude oil, global equity movements and geopolitical developments shaping the day’s volatility backdrop. The index’s subsequent movement will reflect changes in Nifty options’ implied volatility through the remainder of the trading session. 

Source 

• https://www.nseindia.com/reports-indices-historical-vix