Indo-US Trade deal – Waiting for Godot!

Investors awaiting an India-US trade agreement were again disappointed as no signs of a deal were forthcoming. There is some hope that the agreement may be signed soon, though the deadline has been pushed to July 31st .

U.S. Equities edge lower as investors look for tariff clarity

Wall Street was in sideways mode, seemingly fatigued by tariff headlines, as the beaten-down dollar posted its second consecutive gain.

The S&P 500 closed nearly flat, and the Dow slipped as markets digested President Trump’s extension of the tariff deadline to August 1. Mixed signals from the White House and sector specific tariff threats, including a new 50% duty on copper, kept traders cautious.

The Nasdaq eked out a slight gain, outperforming other major indices. Mega-cap tech stocks stabilised after recent volatility, with Tesla rebounding and other giants, such as Nvidia and Microsoft, seeing modest moves.

The recent extension of the US tariff deadline has provided temporary relief to global markets, helping to ease investor anxiety and spark attempts at recovery across major indices. President Trump initially set a July 9 deadline for trading partners to finalise new agreements or face steep tariffs. An executive order pushed this back by three weeks to August 1, granting countries more time to negotiate and avoid immediate penalties.

On the domestic front, India Inc.’s first-quarter earnings season for FY26 kicks off this week, with IT giants TCS and Tata Elxsi scheduled to announce results tomorrow, followed by retail major D-Mart on July 11th .

The Nifty displayed a late-session optimism, breaking out of a narrow range that had held it for most of the trading day.

The encouraging sign for the last two trading sessions is that the Nifty has been registering higher highs and higher lows, a bullish indicator. Immediate resistance for the Nifty is now seen at 25,669, a level above which the index could extend its gains confidently towards the 26,000 mark. On the downside, 25331 would continue to serve as crucial support.

Indian markets are likely to open subdued on the back of any immediate triggers. (“Waiting for Godot” by Samuel Beckett is a famous play about two characters, Vladimir and Estragon, who wait endlessly for someone named Godot, who never arrives.)

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Source: HDFC Securities Prime Research