Bharat Barometer, December 2025 - Growth in both goods and services exports plunged in December

Macroeconomic indicators (Score: 2/5*):-  CPI and WPI both rose marginally but remained at subdued levels, while GST collection returned to positive growth in December. Manufacturing and services PMI continued to decline, and unemployment declined in urban areas while rising in rural.

External sector (Score: 1/5*):-  Growth in both goods and services exports plunged in December 2025, while goods imports rose and services imports slightly declined. Net FDI inflows remained negative for a second month, and net FII outflows continued to reflect a weak trend.

Central government finance(Score:2/5*):- Revenue expenditure growth surged in November. Direct tax collection growth rose to mid-single digits, while the decline in capital expenditure softened. Subsidy payout growth rises and remains strong.

Industrial activity (Score:2/5*):-  Power generation and petroleum consumption improved to mid-single digit growth, though coal offtake and steel consumption weakened. E-way bill generation growth moderated slightly but stayed strong.

Demand & consumption (Score:4/5*):-  Air passenger traffic and auto registrations remained strong, while life insurance premium growth rose. Foreign tourist arrivals were stable in September, and passenger vehicle sales softened slightly but stayed healthy.

Banking and money flow (Score:4/5*):- Credit and deposits both grew strongly in December 2025. UPI transaction growth remained strong despite some softening, whereas IMPS transactions degrew further. Money supply growth rose while Fastag collections continued to moderate.

Rural indicators (Score:4/5*):-  Rural employment growth rose in December, and both tractor and two-wheeler sales maintained a strong upward trend. Reservoir levels remained stable at high-single digit growth, and fertiliser sales saw a revival earlier in the year.

Capital market (Score:3/5*):- Equity mutual fund inflows remained strong and SIP contributions stable, even as net new SIP registrations declined for a second month. Trading volume growth rose in December.

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Source: HDFC Securities Institutional Equities

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