Markets Set to Open Strong on Monday; Gift Nifty Surges Past 24,000 on Iran Peace Deal

Mumbai, June 15: Indian equity markets are set to open sharply higher on Monday, with Gift Nifty futures crossing the psychologically critical 24,000 mark in early morning trade — a level the index had not breached since the Iran-US war began pushing global risk sentiment lower in March.  

The catalyst is unambiguous: the United States and Iran announced on Sunday that they had agreed on a framework to end their three-month war, halt the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the critical global oil and gas shipping chokepoint that Tehran has effectively shut down for months. U.S. President Donald Trump declared the deal complete on his Truth Social platform late Sunday, writing “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” — and global markets responded with an immediate and broad-based risk-on surge that is now feeding directly into Monday’s Indian market open. 

Gift Nifty at 24,001 

Gift Nifty’s near-month futures contract — FUTIDX 30-Jun-2026 — was trading at 24,001.00 at 08:03 IST on Monday, June 15, up 372.50 points or 1.58% from its previous close. The contract’s breach of the 24,000 level in early morning trade is a significant technical signal — it is the first time Gift Nifty has crossed that threshold since the Iran war escalation drove a sustained sell-off across emerging market equities. With the session just underway, the current level points to a gap-up opening for the Nifty 50 in the 23,950–24,050 zone, with the 24,000 mark likely to serve as the key intraday pivot. If opening momentum holds, the Sensex could open above 76,500, adding to Friday’s already powerful 1,695-point rally. 

Iran-US Peace Framework 

The Iran-U.S. peace framework, announced jointly on Sunday, calls for the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts — including Lebanon — starting Monday night, according to a statement from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose country served as a mediator, confirmed on X that the deal had been struck, and the formal memorandum of understanding is scheduled to be signed in Switzerland on Friday. Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed a 60-day ceasefire period during which a more expansive agreement — including sanctions relief for Iran — will be negotiated, with the fate of Iran’s nuclear programme also to be addressed in those subsequent talks. The Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively controlled for months, is expected to reopen within 30 days under Iranian arrangements, according to Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency. 

Asian Markets 

Asian markets responded with near-uniform enthusiasm on Monday morning, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 leading the regional surge with a gain of 5.41% to 69,593.15 — its strongest single-session move in months. Indonesia’s JSX Composite advanced 2.07% to 6,007.66, Pakistan’s KSE 100 rose 1.59% to 172,399.90 and Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries gained 1.38% to 9,130.10 as the peace deal repriced geopolitical risk across the region. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.93% to 24,949.15 and Shanghai’s SSE Composite rose 1.30% to 4,083.99, while Thailand’s SET index gained 1.28% to 1,592.41, reflecting the breadth of the rally across both developed and emerging Asian markets. Only Vietnam’s HNX 30 index bucked the trend, slipping a marginal 0.09% to 516.24 — the sole outlier in an otherwise unambiguously positive regional session. 

US Markets — Friday Closing 

Wall Street closed firmly higher on Friday — before the Iran deal was announced — with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 353.51 points or 0.70% to close at 51,202.26, the S&P 500 rising 0.50% to 7,431.46 and the Nasdaq Composite adding 0.31% to 25,888.84. The Friday gains were driven by easing Iran war rhetoric after Trump cancelled planned military strikes earlier in the week, meaning that Monday’s Asian session is now building on an already elevated base of U.S. equity strength. The full impact of Sunday’s peace deal announcement will be felt when U.S. futures markets open on Monday evening India time, with pre-market indications likely to point to another gap-up session on Wall Street. 

Oil Prices 

Oil prices fell sharply on Monday morning as traders aggressively unwound the geopolitical risk premium that had been embedded in crude since the Strait of Hormuz closure — Brent crude futures dropped $3.58 or 4.10% to $83.75 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate slid $4.01 or 4.72% to $80.87, with both contracts having already tumbled more than 3% on Friday. “The geopolitical risk premium that had been built into crude is now being unwound quite aggressively as traders price in the prospect of restored oil flows,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. For India — which imports over 85% of its crude requirements — the drop in Brent toward $83 is unambiguously positive: it eases the current account deficit, reduces fuel subsidy pressures, strengthens the rupee, and opens the door for the Reserve Bank of India to accelerate its rate-cutting cycle. 

Indian Markets — Friday Closing 

Indian markets had already closed at their strongest levels in two months on Friday, with the BSE Sensex surging 1,695.40 points or 2.30% to close at 75,527.95 — its best single-day gain since April — while the NSE Nifty 50 climbed 461.30 points or 1.99% to end at 23,622.90, crossing the 23,600 mark that had been a ceiling for bulls through much of the prior week. Market breadth on Friday was overwhelmingly positive, with 3,110 stocks advancing against just 969 declines on the NSE, confirming that the rally was broad-based rather than concentrated in index heavyweights. Monday’s session will now open on top of those elevated Friday closing levels, meaning that a sustained gap-up could take the Sensex toward the 77,000 zone and the Nifty 50 toward 24,100 — territory not seen since before the Iran war began reshaping India’s macro landscape in February. 

Sources

• NSE India