Gift Nifty Suggests Firm Open for Indian Markets on Friday 

Mumbai, Aug 20: Gift Nifty futures suggest Indian equity benchmarks will open with a positive bias on Friday. The Nifty 50 and Sensex will likely open at 9:15 am tracking a firmer trend on the derivatives platform. Nifty’s near-month August 25 contract was trading 99 points, or 0.41 per cent, higher at 24,297.50, while the September 29 contract was up 79 points, or 0.33 per cent, at 24,369 in the latest trading session. 

Gift Nifty Intraday Analysis 

Gift Nifty today opened at 24,200.5 and climbed steadily through the session to an intraday high of 24,359.5 by early afternoon, before easing marginally into the close. Prices had dipped to a low of 24,196 earlier in the day before buyers stepped in. Gift Nifty was last trading at 24,297.5, up 99 points, or 0.41 per cent, holding well above its opening level. 

The sharp intraday jump around midday suggests fresh buying interest emerged after a period of consolidation near the 24,250 mark. On the upside, resistance is likely near the day’s high of 24,359.5, while support is placed at 24,250, with the next cushion seen at the day’s low of 24,196. With prices holding above the 24,250-24,300 zone through the latter half of Thursday’s session, Indian equity indices are likely to open with a positive bias on Friday. 

Iran War Live Updates 

The Iran-US standoff remained unresolved on Thursday, with Washington and Tehran continuing to trade conflicting claims over the Strait of Hormuz even after a temporary ceasefire lapsed earlier in the week. President Trump has said no talks are currently under way with Iran, while Tehran insists the waterway remains shut to shipping. The UAE has suspended all trade and financial dealings with Iran after accusing Tehran of firing missiles toward maritime routes, a charge Iran has denied, even as shipping traffic through the strait continues to run well below pre-war levels. 

US Treasury Buyback, Bond Yields 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is in the midst of a historic effort to tamp down long-term Treasury yields, a move that may also complicate the task facing Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. The Treasury Department said on Wednesday it would raise the maximum size of its buybacks of longer-term debt from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, an intervention that helped stem a sell-off pushing yields to uncomfortable levels. While the buybacks are small relative to the total debt outstanding, markets read the move as a potent signal of Bessent’s long-standing effort to bring down the 10-year Treasury yield and other maturities. Economists have flagged risks that the strategy could stoke inflation and make financing the $32.2 trillion in publicly held debt more sensitive to future rate moves, while pressuring the independent Fed to fall in line with administration policy.
Rising US Treasury yields pull global capital toward safer, higher-yielding US bonds and away from emerging markets like India, triggering FII outflows, a weaker rupee and higher borrowing costs domestically. Since Indian bond yields and corporate financing costs tend to track global yield trends, elevated US yields also pressure rate-sensitive sectors such as banking, real estate and auto, making US bond market moves a key input for Sensex and Nifty direction. 

Crude Oil Price 

Brent crude was trading near $91.80 a barrel, up 0.86 per cent, while WTI crude stood at $85.74, up 0.94 per cent, extending gains for a fourth straight session as the Hormuz standoff kept supply risks elevated. Natural gas, gasoline and heating oil also edged higher, while the Opec basket eased 0.50 per cent. Elevated crude prices remain a key risk for oil-importing economies such as India, even as Gulf producers continue routing cargoes through alternative channels to keep exports flowing. 

Outlook 

Should the current mix of conditions persist, that is, an unresolved Iran-US standoff, range-bound crude prices, and a Treasury-driven easing in US yields, Indian markets are likely to sustain the mild optimism reflected in Gift Nifty. Any fresh escalation around the Strait of Hormuz or a reversal in the US bond rally could quickly turn sentiment fragile, given how tightly domestic indices have tracked global cues through this six-month conflict. 

Source

• nseix.com