HSL Prime Research Commodity Daily Report: 16 October 2026

Global Market Round Up

Precious metals moved higher on Friday, with spot gold holding above $4,150 an ounce after rebounding in the previous session. Lower Treasury yields, a softer U.S. dollar and renewed safe-haven demand supported bullion.

The shift towards safer assets pushed bond yields sharply lower, easing pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold. Investors also remained focused on heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East amid escalating hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen. A Singapore-flagged container ship was also sunk in the Strait of Hormuz this week following a reported Iranian projectile strike, adding to concerns over regional shipping and energy flows.

The U.S. dollar index traded around 102 on Friday after declining in the previous session. The dollar underperformed other safe-haven assets, such as precious metals, following the recent selloff in technology and artificial-intelligence stocks.

A sustained decline in yields and the dollar would favour further recovery in gold. Gold could recover if the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields continue to fall. Spot gold has an immediate resistance zone at $4,225–$4,235, with a sustained move above $4,235 likely to reinforce the recovery. Support levels are identified at $4,095 and $4,050. For MCX Gold December futures, the anticipated trading range for the day is ₹147,750–₹150,080.

Crude oil prices remained above $97 a barrel despite a slight pullback, as ongoing concerns about Middle Eastern supply continued to bolster prices. The decline followed the International Energy Agency’s announcement of plans to release emergency crude oil and diesel stocks. The IEA indicated that the volume released by member countries would surpass the 400 million barrels agreed upon in March.

Additionally, the IEA approved the release of the remaining 100 million barrels as part of the coordinated intervention initiated in March, which came after lobbying efforts by U.S. officials. However, rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have heightened concerns regarding potential supply disruptions. Crude oil is expected to remain volatile, with the IEA’s emergency stock release potentially exerting downward pressure on prices, while risks related to Middle Eastern supply and declining U.S. inventories may limit the extent of any price decreases.