India VIX Declines 2.17% to 13.10 as Oil Prices Ease and Market Volatility Co‌o‌ls

Mumbai, June 25: India V‌‌IX fell for the second consecutive trading session on Thursday to settle at the 13 mar‌‌k, reflecting a moderation in expected near-term volatility in the market.  

The volatility index settled at 13.10, down by 0.29 points or 2.17 percent compared to the previous close of 13.39, after hitting an intraday low of 12.43 and a high of 13.38 during the day. The fall in the index was attributed to easing geo-political co‌ncerns, cheaper crude oil prices and positive global cues. 

India VIX Dro‌‌p‌‌s 2.17% to 13.10 As Fear Gauge Slips Below 13 

India V‌I‌‌X opened at 13.38 and‌‌ remained under pressure throughout the day, falling to an intraday low of 12.43 before closing at 13.10. The volatility index has no‌‌w retreated sharply from levels seen earlier this week and traded in the 12.9–13.1 range for most of the session. 

The benchmark volatility indicator has moved away from its recent highs, with the 52-week range between 8.72 and 28.90. Despite Thursday’s decline, India VIX has generated a decline a 38.19% return on a year-to-date, indicating increased uncertainty prevailing during parts of 2026. 

Technical indicators indicated neutral trend, but pivot levels revealed immediate support at 13.02 and resistance at 14.03 according to classic methodology. According to Fibonacci calculations, the support was 13.27 and the resistance 14.05, while Camarilla levels provided support at 13.30 and resistance at 13.48. 

Ceasefire Developments and Crude Retreat Near $72 Trigger Decline 

The latest fall in India’s VIX was accompanied by signals of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that helped to relieve concerns about energy supply disruptions. The reports of preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran and subsequent resumption of tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz were instrumental in calming global markets. 

The de-escalation contributed to a decline in crude oil prices, with Brent crude falling around 2% to nearly $72 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 1.83% to trade below $70 per barrel. Lower energy prices are closely monitored in India, given the country’s dependence on imported crude. 

Additional support emerged from domestic monetary policy commentary. Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that the central bank was not considering an interest rate increase at present, helping maintain confidence around the domestic interest-rate environment. 

Global sentiment also improved after stronger-than-expected earnings from semiconductor companies Micron and Qualcomm, which eased concerns surrounding the artificial intelligence-driven technology rally. Progress in the southwest monsoon further contributed to a more stable backdrop for financial markets. 

Sharp Reversal from 8.56% Spike Seen Two Sessions Ago 

The latest decline in India VIX marks a notable turnaround from developments earlier this week. On 23 June 2026, the volatility index had surged 8.56%, reflecting caution stemming from escalating geopolitical developments and rising oil prices. 

The subsequent pullback over the past two trading sessions indicates that the premium attached to geopolitical risks has moderated considerably. Thursday’s session also extended the nearly 4% decline recorded on 24 June, with India VIX touching 12.43, its lowest level in recent sessions. 

Data compiled from multiple market reports highlighted the downward trajectory during the day. India VIX was reported at 12.93, down 3.38%, shortly after the opening bell, before declining further to 12.79, reflecting a 4.48% loss by late morning. At one stage, the index traded at 12.76, representing a decline of 4.71%, while other market updates placed the gauge between 12.92 and 12.98, indicating losses of around 3–3.5% during early and midday trade. 

The broad trend suggested a consistent reduction in volatility expectations throughout the trading session. 

Lower Volatility Supports Equities as Sensex Gains Near 800 Points 

Indian equity benchmarks traded firmly during the session, aided by softer crude prices, improving global risk appetite and cooling geopolitical concerns. 

The Sensex gained nearly 800 points, while the Nifty 50 advanced by more than 200 points during the day. At the opening bell, benchmark indices had climbed by over 400 points before surrendering part of their gains later in the session. 

Market participants also observed reduced demand for protective hedging in the options segment, a factor that typically accompanies periods of declining volatility. Analysts noted that the movement in India VIX suggested expectations for comparatively smaller fluctuations in equity markets over the next thirty days. 

Historically, June has tended to be a weaker month for India VIX. Seasonality analysis showed that the volatility gauge generated negative returns in 11 out of the last 18 years during June. The month recorded a maximum positive change of 9.45% in 2011, with an average positive change of 5.58%. On the downside, the largest decline stood at 43.90% in 2024, while the average negative change was 15.81%. Overall, India VIX has posted an average change of -7.50% in June. 

India VIX At 13 Signals Moderating Short-Term Swings 

India VIX levels are widely used to measure expected market fluctuations over the coming month. Readings below 12 are generally associated with very calm conditions, while the 12–15 range corresponds with relatively low volatility. Levels between 15 and 20 indicate moderate caution, whereas readings above 20 and 30 are linked with elevated uncertainty and panic conditions, respectively. 

At the close of trade on 25 June 2026, India VIX remained near 13, placing it within the lower volatility band and reflecting a moderation in uncertainty compared with conditions observed earlier in the week. 

Market participants are likely to continue monitoring crude oil prices, foreign institutional investor activity, monthly derivatives positioning, domestic economic data releases and any fresh geopolitical developments, as these factors remain important indicators influencing short-term movements in India VIX and overall market volatility. 

Source 

• https://www.nseindia.com/reports-indices-historical-vix