India VIX Falls 1.99% as Nifty Rebounds; Warsh Speech Keeps Volatility in Focus

Mumbai, Aug 28: India VIX was at 10.84, down 0.22 points or 1.99%, as of 10:04 IST on Friday, after opening at 11.06 against the previous close of 11.07. The volatility gauge moved between 10.54 and 11.09 during the session so far, as Indian equities opened marginally higher following Thursday’s decline. 

India VIX At 10.84 as Markets Stabilise After Thursday’s Fall 

India VIX entered Friday’s session around the 11 mark after rising about 4.7% to 11.07 on Thursday. At approximately 9:38 IST, the volatility gauge was around 10.99, indicating some easing during the early rebound in Indian equities. By 10:04 IST, it stood at 10.84, down 1.99%. 

The broader market also opened on a firmer note. The Nifty opened at 24,122.60, up 0.13%, while the Sensex opened at around 77,128, up approximately 0.25%. By around 9:30 IST, the Sensex was at 77,213.74, up 0.36%, while the Nifty remained at 24,122.60, up 0.13%. 

The early-session movement therefore came as the market attempted to stabilise after Thursday’s weakness, while India VIX remained below the 12 zone that had been viewed as an important psychological and technical level. 

Warsh Speech Keeps Rate Uncertainty Around 11 VIX 

The biggest scheduled global event for Friday was Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole. Markets were awaiting indications on the September Federal Reserve decision, the future direction of US interest rates, inflation and the central bank’s assessment of elevated Treasury yields. 

The speech had not taken place during India’s opening session, making it a pending event risk rather than an immediate volatility shock. The uncertainty around the forthcoming policy signal nevertheless kept the global backdrop cautious and limited the scope for volatility to fall sharply. 

US Treasury yields were another source of uncertainty. Yields had recently moved to elevated levels, with the market reacting after Treasury yields briefly reached levels not seen since 2007. On Friday, yields stabilised as markets awaited Warsh’s remarks. 

Lower Crude and Iran Talks Ease VIX Pressure 

Crude oil provided a stabilising factor for India VIX during the opening session. Oil prices were heading towards a weekly decline of about 5%, while crude was reported at around $90 a barrel during India’s pre-market period. 

Improving diplomatic developments involving Iran and Oman also reduced immediate concerns about disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. The combination of lower crude prices and easing geopolitical concerns reduced immediate pressure from oil-related risks. 

For India, crude prices are closely linked to the import bill, currency conditions and inflation concerns. The softer oil backdrop therefore accompanied the lower volatility reading on Friday morning. 

Nvidia Rally Offsets Mixed Asian Market Signals 

The global equity backdrop remained mixed despite strength in technology stocks following Nvidia’s performance. Asian markets showed differing movements, with Japan and Taiwan benefiting from stronger technology and semiconductor-related conditions, while South Korea and Hong Kong were weaker. 

This left the Asian market signal mixed rather than uniformly positive. The technology-led global rally provided support to the broader risk backdrop, while weakness in parts of North Asia prevented the overseas cues from becoming consistently stronger. 

For the Indian opening, this combination contributed to a more stable volatility environment rather than a fresh increase in India VIX. 

Nifty At 24,122 Keeps 24,000 Support In Focus 

Thursday’s domestic market decline remained an important backdrop for Friday’s opening. The Nifty fell 116.90 points, or 0.48%, to 24,090.85, while the Sensex declined 539.35 points, or 0.70%, to 76,933.59. The Nifty finished Thursday at its day’s low, while India VIX rose approximately 4.7% to 11.07. 

The 24,000 level remained an important reference point entering Friday, with further support around 23,800 and resistance around 24,200–24,300. Stronger resistance was identified around 24,400. 

Friday’s opening above 24,100 therefore came with the Nifty positioned above the key 24,000 level, while the early market rebound coincided with the modest decline in India VIX. 

Closing Auction Adds Uncertainty After Thursday’s Close 

The new Closing Auction Session (CAS) remained an important domestic factor after influencing Thursday’s final market levels. The Nifty’s decline appeared sharper after the closing auction pushed the final index level lower, marking the second consecutive session in which the CAS resulted in a downward adjustment to the final Nifty close. 

The movement introduced additional uncertainty around the previous day’s closing price and remained part of the market backdrop entering Friday. However, it did not produce a fresh India VIX spike during the opening session. 

FII Selling and DII Buying Create Mixed Flow Signals 

Institutional flows on Thursday also presented contrasting signals. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) sold ₹298.26 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought ₹4,977.17 crore. 

The difference between the two flows meant that foreign selling was accompanied by substantially higher domestic institutional purchases. This mixed flow picture formed part of the domestic market backdrop as India VIX moved lower during the early Friday session. 

PCR at 0.77 Reflects a Cautious Derivatives Setup 

Thursday’s derivatives positioning added another layer to the opening-session backdrop. The Nifty put-call ratio (PCR) declined to approximately 0.77, its lowest closing level since 1 June 2026, from 0.91 previously. 

There was significant Put unwinding around 24,350, 24,300 and 24,400, while Call activity was concentrated around the 24,300–24,500 region. Since India VIX is derived from Nifty option prices, changes in option positioning and implied volatility form an important part of its movement. 

The derivatives setup therefore remained a relevant factor even as the opening rebound kept India VIX contained. 

Rupee at ₹95.51 Adds Support to the Opening 

The rupee opened at approximately ₹95.51 per US dollar, strengthening by about 3 paise from its previous close. The move was attributed partly to importer demand and Reserve Bank of India intervention, while lower oil prices also supported the currency backdrop. 

The currency movement provided another stabilising element alongside softer crude prices. The rupee’s marginal strengthening occurred as Indian equities opened higher and India VIX eased below the previous close. 

India VIX Holds 10.84 within a Wider 52-Week Range 

At 10.84, India VIX remained well within its 52-week range of 8.72 to 28.90. Its day range stood at 10.54–11.09, while the opening level was 11.06 and the previous close was 11.07. 

Technical indicators showed the trend as NEUTRAL. The Classic pivot levels placed R1 at 11.45, R2 at 11.83, R3 at 12.38, PP at 10.90, S1 at 10.52, S2 at 9.97 and S3 at 9.59. 

Seasonality data showed that India VIX had delivered positive returns in 12 of 18 Augusts. August’s maximum positive change was 68.84% in 2015, with an average positive change of 18.10%. The maximum negative change was -11.26% in 2016, with an average negative change of -6.24%, while the average August change was 9.99%. 

India VIX stood at 10.84 at 10:04 IST, down 1.99%, after opening at 11.06. The early movement followed a modest recovery in Indian equities, lower crude prices, easing immediate Iran-related concerns and mixed global cues, while the pending Jackson Hole speech remained a key scheduled event during the session. 

Source 

• https://www.nseindia.com/reports-indices-historical-vix