India VIX Fal‌ls 2.02% to 12.56 in Opening Trade as US-Iran Op‌ti‌‌mism and Softer Oi‌‌l Prices Keep Volatility Contained

Mumbai, June 23: The India VIX traded lower during Tuesday morning, reflecting subdued volatility expectations despite the geopolitical situation continuing and occasional intraday swings. At 09:42 IS‌T‌, the volatility index stood at 12.56, down 0.26 points or 2.02% from its last closing value of 12.84. This comes after a period when the index had been trading high earlier in the year, indicating moderation in volatility expectations. 

India VIX opened at 12.84, the same as its previous close, and traded within a range of 12.43 and 12.97 on early dealings. The index has moved between 52-week lows and highs of 8.72 and 28.90, while offering annual returns of 32.49%. While geopolitical events keep influencing short-term behaviour, the volatility indicator has remained below the levels seen in March and the first half of June. 

India VIX At 12.56 As Early Gains Fade 

The India VIX brie‌‌fly moved higher during the morning session and touch‌‌ed a high of 12.97, but then it failed to hold on to its gains and fell below its opening level.  

Despite the temporary rise, India VIX remained well below its recent peak of 15.08 recorded on 13 June 2026 and continued to trade near five-month lows. The latest movement indicates that while market participants are monitoring global developments, volatility expectations have not returned to the elevated levels seen earlier in the year. 

Also Read: What is India VIX Index? 

Technical indicators also reflected a balanced setup. The daily trend rating for India VIX remained Neutral, with no fresh directional signals emerging from moving averages, technical indicators or moving average crossovers. The absence of strong technical cues suggests that the volatility gauge is currently moving within a relatively stable range. 

Support and resistance calculations based on the previous trading session’s price range indicate that classical pivot levels place resistance at 13.35, 13.87 and 14.22, while support levels stand at 12.48, 12.13 and 11.61. Fibonacci pivot calculations indicate resistance at 13.33, 13.53 and 13.87, with support levels at 12.66, 12.46 and 12.13. Camarilla levels show resistance at 12.92, 13.00 and 13.08, while support points are identified at 12.76, 12.68 and 12.60. 

US-Iran Talks and Oil Ease Volatility 

The decline in India VIX during early trade came despite ongoing geopolitical developments involving the United States and Iran. Concerns over regional tensions had initially pushed volatility expectations higher, contributing to the intraday spike witnessed during the morning session. 

However, improving expectations surrounding discussions between the two countries later helped contain volatility. Reports highlighting optimism over a possible peace framework and discussions related to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz supported sentiment across global markets. 

The easing geopolitical concerns also coincided with softer crude oil prices. Lower oil prices have reduced concerns regarding imported inflation and India’s current account deficit, factors that had previously contributed to heightened uncertainty in financial markets. 

Positive global market cues further supported stability in domestic equities, while bargain buying in information technology stocks also aided broader market sentiment. These developments helped India VIX remain within the 12–13 range, despite fluctuations during the opening session. 

March’s 91% Jump Gives Way to Lows 

India VIX has witnessed substantial fluctuations during 2026. March marked the sharpest surge in volatility this year as geopolitical concerns in West Asia and rising crude oil prices weighed on financial markets. 

During the month, India VIX jumped 23% in a single trading session and advanced 39% for March overall. Later in the month, the volatility gauge climbed another 15% in one day and was reported to be 91% higher than its level on 27 February 2026, reflecting heightened uncertainty and increased demand for hedging instruments. 

Volatility resurfaced again in early June when India VIX moved towards 16.98, as geopolitical tensions returned to the forefront. On 19 June 2026, the index rose nearly 4.8% to 13.28 during early trade. Despite the increase, analysts observed that volatility expectations remained significantly below the levels recorded in March, indicating that traders were not anticipating disruptions on a similar scale. 

Compared with those episodes, the latest reading of 12.56 places India VIX close to some of its lowest levels in approximately five months. The decline from the highs recorded earlier this year highlights the moderation in volatility expectations that has taken place over recent weeks. 

June’s 7.65% Average Drop Signals Trend 

Seasonality analysis indicates that June has historically been a softer month for India VIX. Data shows that the volatility gauge has delivered negative returns in 11 out of the last 18 years during June. 

The month recorded its highest positive change of 9.45% in 2011, while the average positive gain stands at 5.58%. On the downside, June registered its steepest decline of 43.90% in 2024, and the average negative change is calculated at 16.07%. 

Overall, India VIX has posted an average change of -7.65% in June, suggesting that lower volatility readings have been more common during the month over the longer term. The current reading of 12.56, therefore, aligns with the broader seasonal pattern observed in previous years, even as global developments continue to influence short-term movements. 

India VIX traded lower at 12.56 during the opening session on 23 June 2026, remaining below recent highs despite intermittent intraday spikes linked to geopolitical developments. Market participants are likely to continue monitoring crude oil prices, global developments and movements in volatility indicators through the remainder of the trading day for additional cues. 

Source 

• https://www.nseindia.com/reports-indices-historical-vix