India VIX Open Report, June 25, 2026: Volatility Index Slips 4.71% Below 13 as Oil Retreat and RBI Signals Ease Market Volatility

Mumbai, June 25: India VIX extended its decline for a second consecutive session on Thursday, falling below the 13-mark during early trade as easing crude oil prices, improving global cues and reassuring comments from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) helped reduce concerns over near-term market fluctuations. The volatility gauge was trading at 12.76, down 0.63 points or 4.71%, at 10:13 IST, after ending the previous session at 13.39. 

India VIX Falls 4.71% to 12.76 As Calm Returns 

India VIX opened at 13.38 and moved within a day’s range of 12.43–13.38, touching its intraday low shortly after the opening bell. The volatility index has now retreated significantly from its earlier highs this year and remains well within its 52-week range of 8.72 to 28.90. 

The latest decline follows a nearly 4% drop on 24 June, when India VIX settled at 13.39, indicating that expectations of sharp market swings have moderated. The index has generated a 34.92% year-to-date return, although historical trends show June has generally been a weak month for volatility. Seasonal data indicates that India VIX has delivered negative returns in 11 out of the past 18 years during June, with an average decline of 7.57%. 

Equities Rebound as Lower Crude Prices Ease Concerns 

Indian benchmark indices rebounded strongly on Wednesday, contributing to the cooling in volatility expectations. The Nifty 50 advanced 197.55 points or 0.83% to close at 24,021.65, while the Sensex gained 790.54 points or 1.04% to finish at 76,991.22. 

The positive momentum continued into Thursday’s session, with the Sensex rising by about 400 points to 77,391, while the Nifty added around 104 points to trade at 24,126 during early hours. 

A decline in global energy prices emerged as one of the key factors supporting market stability. Brent crude dropped around 2% to nearly $72 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 1.83% to trade below $70 per barrel. The easing in oil prices followed the resumption of tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz after reports of a preliminary understanding between the United States and Iran reduced fears of supply disruptions. 

For India, one of the world’s largest crude importers, softer oil prices have eased immediate concerns related to the current account deficit (CAD) and broader balance-of-payments pressures. 

RBI Comments and Monsoon Progress Add Stability 

Market conditions also received support from comments made by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, who stated that the central bank is not considering an interest rate hike at present. The remarks helped reassure participants about the domestic interest-rate outlook, particularly for banking and financial stocks. 

Meanwhile, the official arrival of the monsoon season provided an additional boost to sentiment surrounding agricultural activity and consumption-related sectors. 

These developments collectively contributed to a reduction in demand for protective positions in the derivatives market, resulting in lower implied volatility readings. 

Sharp 8.56% Spike on 23 June Proved Short-Lived 

The recent decline in India VIX comes only two sessions after a sudden surge in volatility. On 23 June, the index had jumped 8.56%, reflecting increased caution amid geopolitical developments and broader global uncertainties. 

However, that spike proved temporary. By 24 June, India VIX had fallen by 3.99%, and the downward trend extended into Thursday’s session, with the gauge hovering near the 13 level. 

The latest reading also places India VIX comfortably below the 15–16 range seen earlier in 2026, when geopolitical tensions and rising crude prices had pushed volatility expectations higher. 

Technical Levels Show Neutral Trend Near 13 Mark 

Technical indicators continue to suggest a neutral outlook for India VIX. The daily technical rating remains “Neutral”, while moving averages, technical indicators and crossover signals currently do not indicate a clear directional bias. 

Pivot calculations based on the previous trading session show a Classic Pivot Point at 13.66, with resistance levels placed at 14.03, 14.67 and 15.04. Support levels are positioned at 13.02, 12.65 and 12.01. 

Under the Fibonacci method, resistance levels stand at 14.05, 14.28 and 14.67, while support is identified at 13.27, 13.04 and 12.65. Camarilla levels indicate resistance between 13.48 and 13.67, with support ranging from 13.30 to 13.11. 

Analysts tracking benchmark indices noted that the 24,000 level on the Nifty remains an important threshold. The immediate support zone lies at 23,900, followed by a broader support band between 23,790 and 23,750. On the upside, the 24,090–24,150 range continues to act as a supply zone, while 24,200–24,300 is expected to remain a significant resistance band in the absence of fresh market-moving developments. 

FII Selling and Expiry Session Keep Attention High 

Despite the easing in volatility, some factors continue to warrant close monitoring. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net sellers in the cash market on Wednesday, offloading equities worth ₹1,843 crore, although domestic institutional investors continued to provide support. 

In addition, Thursday’s weekly derivatives expiry session could lead to temporary fluctuations in trading activity. Expectations around future monetary policy decisions in the United States also remain under watch, given their influence on global capital flows and risk appetite. 

India VIX at 12.76, down 4.71%, reflects a moderation in expected near-term market fluctuations following lower crude oil prices, improving global conditions and supportive domestic cues. Market participants may continue monitoring oil prices, foreign institutional investor activity, weekly expiry-related movements and global monetary policy developments for further direction. 

Source 

• https://www.nseindia.com/reports-indices-historical-vix