India VIX Rises 0.99% as Volatility Firms on Geopolitical and Crude Concerns 

Mumbai, Aug 10: India VIX rose 0.12 points, or 0.99%, to 12.20 as of 3:38 pm IST on Monday, signalling a modest increase in expected market volatility. The volatility index opened at 12.15, compared with the previous close of 12.16, and moved between an intraday low of 10.81 and a high of 12.91. Despite today’s increase, India VIX remains well below its 52-week high of 28.90, keeping the latest move within a relatively contained range. 

India VIX At 12.20 As Volatility Picks Up 

The latest movement comes after India VIX closed at 12.16 on August 7, indicating that volatility expectations have remained broadly stable through the opening weeks of August. Monday’s move to 12.20 represents only a marginal increase from the previous session, although the index’s intraday range shows that volatility was more active during the trading session. 

India VIX touched 10.81 during the day before climbing to 12.91, creating a wide intraday range. The index remains significantly below its 52-week high of 28.90 and above its 52-week low of 8.72. 

The technical rating for India VIX remains NEUTRAL, according to the latest available technical data. The Classic pivot levels for the session place the pivot point at 12.00, with resistance levels at 12.70, 13.24 and 13.94, while support levels stand at 11.46, 10.76 and 10.22. 

Crude and West Asia Concerns Keep Volatility Firm 

The latest increase in India VIX comes as markets continue to monitor crude oil prices and developments around the Strait of Hormuz and West Asia. Renewed geopolitical uncertainty remains an important external factor for Indian markets, particularly when accompanied by movements in crude prices. 

The relationship was also visible during the sharp volatility episode in July. On 8 July, India VIX jumped 26.01% to 14.68, while the Nifty 50 fell about 2.1% and the Sensex declined around 1,677 points. Brent crude also rose sharply during that episode as concerns over geopolitical escalation and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz intensified. 

The latest rise, however, remains much smaller than the July move. India VIX at 12.20 is also substantially below the 14.68 closing level recorded on 8 July. 

July Spike Faded as India VIX Closed at 11.75 

The current level needs to be viewed against the sharp but temporary increase recorded last month. India VIX closed at 11.75 on 31 July, declining 3.37% during the session. It opened at 12.15, reached a high of 12.21 and touched a low of 11.64. 

The decline at the end of July followed a rapid reversal from the July 8 volatility spike. On that day, India VIX rose from a previous close of 11.65 to 14.68, with an intraday high of 15.16 and a low of 11.33. 

The index then declined 8.97% to 13.36 on 9 July, as the Nifty 50 recovered 0.34% to 23,963. The subsequent retreat in India VIX continued through the remainder of July, bringing the index back towards the 11–12 range. 

RBI Policy Kept Volatility Near 12 

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) latest monetary policy decision did not produce a significant volatility spike. The central bank maintained the repo rate at 5.25%, while India VIX remained around the 12 level following the decision. 

India VIX was reported at around 12.00, down about 0.74%, around the policy announcement. The movement indicated that the RBI’s decision was absorbed without the sharp volatility increase witnessed during the July geopolitical episode. 

The policy decision was also followed by continued consolidation in the broader market. On 7 August, the Nifty 50 declined 0.32% to 24,557, while the Sensex fell 0.59% to 78,491. Crude recovery and renewed uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz were among the factors cited in the market’s movement. 

August Started with India VIX Near 12 

India VIX has remained largely contained since the beginning of August. The index stood at 11.99 on August 3, rose to 12.13 on August 4, and moved to around 12.01 on August 5. It remained around 12.06 on 6 August before ending August 7 at 12.16. 

This sequence shows that volatility expectations stayed within a narrow range during most of the first week of August. Monday’s move to 12.20 therefore represents a modest increase rather than a sharp reversal in the broader pattern. 

The index’s movement has occurred alongside several market developments, including the RBI policy decision, ongoing Q1 FY27 earnings, consolidation in the Nifty after its recent advance and continued attention on crude oil and West Asia. 

Q1 FY27 Earnings Add Another Volatility Trigger 

The ongoing Q1 FY27 earnings season remains another factor influencing market activity. The first week of August saw market participants assess corporate earnings alongside movements in domestic equities, crude oil and global developments. 

The combination of earnings-related developments and geopolitical uncertainty has kept the focus on the direction of market volatility. However, the latest India VIX reading of 12.20 remains considerably below the levels recorded during the July 8 episode. 

The index’s current position therefore reflects a market environment where volatility has firmed from the subdued levels seen towards the end of July, without returning to the elevated levels recorded during the earlier shock. 

India VIX Remains Below Its 52-Week Peak 

Despite Monday’s increase, India VIX remains far below its 52-week high of 28.90. Its current level is also above the 52-week low of 8.72, placing the index between the two extremes recorded over the past year. 

The latest technical setup shows a NEUTRAL trend. The Classic pivot point stands at 12.00, just below the latest reading of 12.20. Resistance is placed at 12.70, followed by 13.24 and 13.94, while support levels are at 11.46, 10.76 and 10.22. 

These levels provide the current technical range for the index following its movement between 10.81 and 12.91 during Monday’s session. 

August Seasonality Points to Higher Historical Volatility 

Historical August data also provides additional context. India VIX has recorded positive returns in 13 out of 18 years during August. The month has recorded a maximum positive change of 68.84% in 2015, while the average positive change stands at 17.02%. 

On the downside, August’s maximum negative change was 11.26% in 2016, with the average negative change at 6.01%. The overall average change for August stands at 10.62%. 

These historical figures describe the index’s past August performance and provide context for the current month’s movement. 

Current VIX Movement Remains Below July Stress Levels 

India VIX’s movement on August 10, remains considerably different from the sharp increase recorded on 8 July. The index has risen from 12.16 to 12.20, while its intraday high of 12.91 remains below the July 8 closing level of 14.68 and intraday high of 15.16. 

The current market data therefore shows a modest firming in volatility after a relatively calm first week of August. Crude oil, West Asia developments, Q1 FY27 earnings, the RBI policy outcome and domestic market consolidation remain the key developments surrounding the index. 

India VIX stood at 12.20 as of 3:38 pm IST on August 10, with an intraday range of 10.81–12.91. The index remains below July’s 14.68 close and 15.16 intraday high, while its 12.00 pivot, 12.70 resistance and 11.46 support provide the latest technical reference points. 

Source 

• https://www.nseindia.com/reports-indices-historical-vix