Markets Set for a Soft Start on Monday As Gift Nifty Signals Caution

Mumbai, Sept 7: Indian equities look headed for a soft opening on Monday, with early cues from Gift Nifty pointing to a cautious start after a choppy end to last week globally. The set-up isn’t encouraging: Asian markets are trading in a mixed bag this morning, Wall Street closed firmly in the red on Friday, and crude oil continues to climb as the Iran conflict shows no signs of de-escalating. For a market that had only just snapped a four-session losing streak on Friday, the overnight developments suggest that recovery could prove short-lived. 

The core tension driving global sentiment is a familiar one: growth resilience colliding with inflation risk. Friday’s stronger-than-expected US jobs report, rather than reassuring investors, stoked fears that the Federal Reserve may need to hold rates higher for longer, sending Treasury yields up and equities down across the board. Layered on top of that is a geopolitical risk premium that refuses to fade, with Brent and WTI crude both holding above $90 a barrel amid escalating US-Iran hostilities in the Gulf. 

For Indian markets specifically, this combination is doubly unwelcome. India remains a heavy net importer of crude, so a sustained rise in oil prices squeezes the current account, pressures the rupee, and complicates the inflation trajectory just as global rate expectations are also turning hawkish. That’s a rare double blow, and it’s the kind of macro backdrop that tends to weigh on sentiment even when domestic fundamentals hold up. 

Against this backdrop, the early Gift Nifty print is a useful, if imperfect, signal of where the cash market opens today. Traders will be watching whether Friday’s late-session buying in metals and financials can offset a global mood that’s turned distinctly risk-off, or whether Monday reverts to the selling pattern that dominated most of last week. 

Gift Nifty Snapshot 

As of 8:11 AM IST on Monday, September 7, Gift Nifty futures (29-Sep-2026 expiry) were trading at 23,962.50, down 32.50 points, or 0.14%, from the previous close. The VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) for the contract stood at 223.07. While the decline is modest, it reinforces the broader signal from overnight global cues: a flat-to-weak opening is the more likely scenario for the Nifty 50 when Indian markets begin trading, rather than a continuation of Friday’s late recovery. 

Iran War 

Iran said on Sunday it will intensify efforts to counter the economic damage from crippling US sanctions, even as a senior official warned that any further attack would trigger a “faster, heavier and more painful” response. Tit-for-tat strikes resumed over the weekend, with US Central Command saying it hit three Iranian tankers after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps fired ballistic missiles at two US Navy vessels. Iran also announced plans for a new restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil supplies once flowed, warning that any vessel entering it would face sanctions. Six months since US-Israeli strikes triggered the conflict, a June ceasefire has collapsed and diplomatic efforts remain stalled, leaving the standoff in an uneasy stalemate. 

Asian Markets on Monday Morning 

Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday, with sentiment split between resilience and caution. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was the standout gainer, up a sharp 2.21% to 66,460.11, while Thailand’s SET index rose 1.18% and Pakistan’s KSE 100 added 0.23%. On the weaker side, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.91%, Vietnam’s HNX 30 fell 0.21%, and mainland China’s Shanghai Composite edged down marginally by 0.03%. Australia’s All Ordinaries and Indonesia’s JSX Composite posted only marginal gains, underscoring the lack of a clear directional bias across the region. 

US Markets on Friday 

All major US benchmarks closed lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 271.86 points, or 0.51%, to 53,414.25. The S&P 500 dropped 0.38% to 7,718.60, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.29% to 26,506.99. The NYSE Composite and Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC also ended in negative territory, reflecting broad-based selling pressure tied to hot jobs data, rising rate expectations, and Middle East-driven oil price gains. 

Oil Prices 

Crude oil prices continued their upward march, with WTI Crude at $92.08 a barrel, up 0.66%, and Brent Crude at $96.84, up 0.58%. Murban Crude, however, slipped 1.36% to $103.30, while natural gas eased 1.82% to $2.921. Elevated prices reflect ongoing concerns over supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz, alongside a broader risk premium tied to escalating US-Iran hostilities. With Iran signalling further restrictions near the strait, traders are pricing in the possibility of continued volatility in energy markets through September. 

Friday’s Sensex and Nifty Close 

Indian benchmarks snapped a four-session losing streak on Friday, with the Sensex gaining 362.57 points, or 0.48%, to close at 76,515.43, while the Nifty 50 rose 24.25 points, or 0.10%, to settle at 23,897.70. The Nifty Metal index led sectoral gains, rising over 1%, while IT, auto, PSU Bank, pharma and realty stocks each declined around 0.5%, capping the overall advance. 

Source

•  nseindia.com