Prime Research Commodity Daily Report: 13 October 2026

Global Market Round Up

Gold prices held near $4,175 an ounce with a positive bias as lower Treasury yields offset pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar ahead of key inflation data. Market participants are focused on this week’s U.S. inflation readings for fresh signals on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. The CPI report is due on Wednesday, followed by producer inflation data on Thursday. Markets are currently pricing in around an 80% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged this month, while the probability of a December rate hike stands near 88%.

The dollar index remained close to an 18-month high reached in the previous session, keeping dollar-denominated metals relatively expensive for holders of other currencies. Geopolitical developments also remained in focus, with the U.S. considering joining Saudi Arabia in its campaign against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, while the recently announced Russia-Ukraine “energy ceasefire” has already faced reported violations.

Gold is likely to remain range-bound in the near term, with the upcoming U.S. inflation data expected to provide the next major directional trigger. From a technical perspective, the $4,050–$4,100 zone appears to offer strong support, where bargain buying could emerge. A sustained move below this zone would weaken the near-term outlook; however, as long as prices hold above support, buying on dips with controlled risk remains preferable.

Crude oil prices fell below $93 a barrel on Tuesday, ending a three-session winning streak as markets weighed improving fuel supplies against escalating geopolitical tensions. Russia partially lifted its diesel export restrictions on October 10 following an agreement with the U.S., helping ease supply constraints in global fuel markets. However, geopolitical uncertainty remained elevated after U.S. lawmakers questioned whether the agreement between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin conflicts with U.S. restrictions on Russian energy imports. Focus now shifts to this week’s OPEC and IEA monthly reports for fresh insights into global demand and supply fundamentals.

Copper is facing near-term pressure from uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy, while tightening concentrate supply provides fundamental support. Natural gas remains sensitive to weather forecasts, with warmer conditions limiting early heating demand.