The Prime Daily 15 July 2026

Cooling Inflation and Bank Earnings Fuel Wall Street Rally

Major US stock indexes rose after June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a 0.4% monthly decline, bringing annual inflation down to 3.5%. The unexpectedly soft reading triggered a sharp shift in rate expectations, with the probability of a July Fed hike falling from 42% to 17%.

Headline CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month in June — the largest single-month decline in over six years — driven by a 9.7% plunge in gasoline prices following the temporary US-Iran ceasefire that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Core CPI rose just 2.6% year-over-year, below the 2.9% estimate. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh nonetheless stopped short of signalling rate cuts, reaffirming the Fed’s commitment to price stability.

Five of the largest US banks posted a combined 39% jump in quarterly earnings, powered by strong investment banking fees and equities trading revenue. Goldman Sachs led the rally, rising 9% to a new all-time high, while JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America also posted solid share-price gains on their results.

The Nasdaq advanced 0.9% as semiconductor stocks rebounded from the prior session’s sell-off, with Micron Technology and Lam Research each gaining roughly 5%. The tech-heavy index nonetheless came under pressure from a historic drop in IBM shares after the company warned of weaker-than-expected software and infrastructure profits.

IBM shares fell sharply after a disappointing second quarter, with adjusted EPS of $2.93 against a $3.01 estimate and revenue of $17.2 billion versus $17.86 billion expected. The miss reignited concerns over near-term AI monetisation, rippling through the broader tech sector and acting as the single biggest drag on the Dow Jones.

CrowdStrike, Fortinet, and other cybersecurity names rose after IBM’s results suggested enterprise customers are shifting spend away from legacy IT vendors — reinforcing the view that AI-driven security platforms are capturing budget dollars that traditional infrastructure players are losing.

SK Hynix surged 19% to $181.67 on Tuesday, as newly launched US single-stock leveraged ETFs tied to the Korean memory chipmaker drove a wave of retail buying. The rally lifted memory and storage names, including Micron, SanDisk, and Western Digital, even as South Korea’s broader KOSPI index remains roughly 25% below its June peak amid concerns that the AI trade may be overextended.

Crude oil prices climbed back above $80 per barrel as the US and Iran exchanged renewed military strikes and Washington reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian shipping. Brent crude spiked as high as $86 a barrel — a one-month high — after Iran struck two UAE oil tankers and the US confirmed strikes on Iranian military targets. Gains were pared after President Trump abandoned a proposed 20% transit fee on cargo moving through the Strait of Hormuz, opting instead to pursue investment deals with Gulf states.

Asian market opened higher today, tracking gains in U.S. stocks on the back of a chip rally.

The Indian rupee underperformed its Asian peers, depreciating 58 paise to close at 96.20, its weakest level in a month. A surge in crude prices amid rising geopolitical tensions weighed heavily on the currency, while higher global bond yields could dampen expected inflows into the FCNR(B) scheme, adding further pressure.

India’s retail inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 4.38% (provisional) in June 2026. This marked an acceleration from the 3.93% recorded in May 2026, largely driven by a spike in food prices and the effects of a weaker-than-normal monsoon.

Nifty snapped its three-session winning streak, declining 158 points to close at 24052 yesterday. The index remains in a consolidation phase. Looking ahead, the recent swing high near 24,260 is likely to act as near-term resistance, while support is placed around 23,800.

Indian markets are set to open on a flat to positive note amid encouraging global cues.