Gift Nifty Signals Muted Open for Indian Markets on Monday

Mumbai, June 1: Indian equity markets are set to open on a cautious note on Monday, with Gift Nifty futures pointing to a muted start as a combustible mix of Iran war anxiety, a fresh surge in crude oil prices and lingering weakness from Friday’s sharp domestic selloff temper any appetite for risk at the open. 

The mood heading into Monday’s session is one of watchful restraint investors are unwilling to take large positions until greater clarity emerges on two fronts: whether the United States and Iran can formalise a deal to extend their early-April truce, and whether crude oil’s overnight spike above $93 a barrel will further stoke inflation fears and delay any prospect of rate relief globally.

Gift Nifty

Gift Nifty futures for the June 30, 2026 expiry were trading at 23,737.50 as of 08:13 am on June 1 up 47.50 points or 0.20% from the previous close offering a tentatively positive signal for Monday’s domestic open, even if the gain is narrow and hardly emphatic given the scale of Friday’s 1,100-point Sensex collapse. The modest uptick suggests that overnight global cues, including Wall Street’s resilient Friday close and a broadly positive Monday session across key Asian markets, are providing just enough of a floor to prevent an outright gap-down at the start.

Iran War

The Iran war remains the single most consequential wildcard for global markets this week, with US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth declaring at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Saturday that Washington’s military capability to “recommence” strikes on Iran is fully intact adding that American stockpiles are “more than suited” for renewed operations both in the region and globally. Even as he issued the warning, Hegseth struck a diplomatic note, describing President Donald Trump as “patient” and intent on securing a “great deal” that permanently prevents Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. On Friday, Trump himself said he would convene in a secure White House room to make a “final determination” on a proposal that would extend the early-April ceasefire by a further 60 days buying negotiators additional time to forge a lasting end to the conflict. Markets will be watching every diplomatic signal with extreme sensitivity: a deal extension would send crude sharply lower and lift risk sentiment, while a breakdown in talks could trigger the kind of oil spike and equity rout that Friday’s session only partially previewed.

Asian Markets on Monday Morning

Asian equity markets opened the week on a mixed but broadly positive note on Monday morning, with the region’s major indices drawing support from Wall Street’s resilient Friday close and optimism around AI-driven technology demand, even as geopolitical uncertainty capped the upside. The Nikkei 225 was the standout gainer, surging 1.07% to 67,038 points, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 1.14% to 25,469 and South Korea’s KSE 100 added 1.30% to 173,962 all three benefiting from a weaker US dollar and improving risk appetite in the technology sector. 

US Markets on Friday

US equity markets closed Friday’s session with measured gains, as technology and blue-chip stocks attracted dip-buying even as broader market breadth remained uninspiring. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.72% to close at 51,032, the S&P 500 gained 0.22% to finish at 7,580, and the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.20% to 26,972 all three indices recovering from earlier session weakness as investors found comfort in AI-related momentum and easing concerns over the pace of Federal Reserve rate action. However, the NYSE Composite slipped 0.04% and Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC fell 0.40%, indicating that the Friday recovery was selective rather than broad-based.

Oil Prices

Crude oil prices surged more than 2% in early Monday trading after Israel ordered troops to deepen their incursion into Lebanon in defiance of a ceasefire announced over six weeks ago a development that immediately dimmed expectations of an imminent US-Iran truce extension and sent both major benchmarks sharply higher. US WTI crude futures jumped $2.37 or 2.71% to $89.73 a barrel, while Brent crude rose $2.16 or 2.37% to $93.28 a barrel as of early GMT reversing the 1.7-1.8% declines that both benchmarks had recorded on Friday when ceasefire optimism was briefly in the ascendant. 

Friday’s Domestic Market Close

Indian equity benchmarks suffered one of their sharpest single-session declines in recent months on Friday, with the BSE Sensex plunging nearly 1,100 points or 1.4% to close at 74,775.7, and the Nifty 50 sliding 1.5% to finish at 23,547.7, decisively breaking below the psychologically important 23,600 level. The selloff was broad-based and unsparing across sectors financials, autos, defence and consumption stocks all saw heavy profit booking with only the IT pack managing to hold ground, as Wipro’s expanded AI-focused partnership with ServiceNow and buying in Infosys, TCS and HCLTech offered the lone patch of resilience in an otherwise deeply red session. 

Source:

• nseindia.com