HSL Prime Research Commodity Weekly Report: 01-06-2026

Global Market Round Up

Precious metals staged a late-week recovery, with gold rebounding from nine-week lows to finish the week modestly higher. After remaining under pressure for most of the week due to elevated Treasury yields, a firm U.S. dollar, and expectations of prolonged restrictive monetary policy, sentiment improved during the final two trading sessions as softer-than-expected U.S. economic data eased concerns over further policy tightening.

The recovery was largely driven by a downward revision to first-quarter U.S. GDP growth, which highlighted signs of slowing economic momentum, while core PCE inflation—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—rose at a slower monthly pace than expected. The combination of moderating inflation pressures and weaker growth data encouraged investors to scale back some hawkish monetary policy expectations, supporting a rebound in gold and silver prices.

Market sentiment also benefited from growing optimism surrounding ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations. Despite the late-week recovery, the near-term outlook for precious metals remains closely tied to developments surrounding the negotiations. The direction of crude oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar will remain key drivers for the market.

Continued progress toward a diplomatic resolution could support precious metals by easing inflation concerns, while any setback in negotiations may revive volatility and weigh on sentiment through higher energy prices and tighter monetary policy expectations.

On the geopolitical front, negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have reportedly made progress, but discussions remain at the preliminary framework stage and still require approval from the leadership of both countries. Key differences remain unresolved, with Iran seeking immediate sanctions relief, access to frozen assets, and financial support for reconstruction, while the U.S. continues to link any sanctions easing to verified compliance milestones.

Crude oil prices are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Although hopes for increased supply have pressured prices lower, global inventories continue to tighten and geopolitical risks remain elevated. Even if a deal is reached, a gradual recovery in supply and lingering uncertainty over Middle East energy flows could keep crude prices above pre-conflict levels and maintain volatility in the weeks ahead.

Globally, market attention will be focused on manufacturing PMI data from major economies and key U.S. labor market indicators, including weekly jobless claims and the non-farm payrolls report. These releases will be closely monitored for signals on economic growth and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook, with potential implications for bond yields, the U.S. dollar, and broader commodity markets.

Market Performance Snapshot