HSL Prime Research Commodity Weekly Report 22 June 2026

Global Market Round Up

Gold prices extended their losses on Friday, erasing the gains recorded earlier in the week as investors increasingly priced in the prospect of tighter U.S. monetary policy. Spot gold fell to around $4,150 per ounce, its lowest level since mid-June, marking a third consecutive weekly decline. The selloff accelerated after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a notably hawkish message following his first policy meeting at the helm of the central bank. His strong focus on combating inflation led markets to reassess the outlook for interest rates, with traders bringing forward expectations for further policy tightening.

The shift in rate expectations provided a significant boost to the U.S. dollar, which recorded its strongest weekly performance in a month. A stronger dollar, combined with rising Treasury yields, reduced the attractiveness of non-yielding assets such as gold and silver, prompting further liquidation across the precious metals complex. Although progress in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations helped ease geopolitical concerns and lower energy prices, those supportive factors were overshadowed by the market’s growing conviction that U.S. interest rates could remain elevated for longer.

Crude oil prices remained under pressure last week, with WTI crude ending nearly 10% lower as growing optimism surrounding a U.S.-Iran interim agreement eased concerns over supply disruptions. Expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could gradually reopen helped remove a significant portion of the geopolitical risk premium that had supported oil prices during the conflict, pushing crude back toward the $70 per barrel level.

Sentiment improved further after Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire scheduled to take effect on Friday, a development viewed as an important step toward broader peace efforts in the region. If the truce holds, it could help pave the way for a more comprehensive agreement between Washington and Tehran. Despite the easing tensions, traders remain cautious. Shipping data indicated that tanker activity slowed after an initial surge earlier in the week, suggesting market participants are still waiting for clearer confirmation that energy flows through the region can return to normal.

As a result, while the geopolitical backdrop has improved significantly, crude oil is likely to remain sensitive to developments surrounding the implementation of the ceasefire and the U.S.-Iran peace process.

This week, markets will focus on key U.S. economic data, including the Core PCE Price Index, personal income, and GDP figures, for fresh clues on inflation and economic growth. In China, the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is expected to remain unchanged for a 13th consecutive month.

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