India VIX Closes Near 11.16 as Oil and Middle East Risks Persist

Mumbai, Sept 8: India VIX ended Tuesday’s session near 11.16, with the historical series showing a close of approximately 11.1575, up about 0.68% from the previous close of 11.0825. The index moved between 10.4500 and 11.3950 during the session. A live market snapshot at 15:39 IST showed India VIX at 11.19, up 0.02 points or 0.18%, with the day’s range at 10.45–11.39. 

India VIX Holds Near 11.16 Despite Oil and Geopolitical Risks 

India VIX remained relatively contained even as several global and domestic factors kept the market under pressure. Continuing tensions between the United States and Iran, elevated crude prices, weakness in Indian equities and a softer rupee shaped the session. 

The index opened at 11.16, the same level as the previous close in the live market snapshot, before moving as high as 11.39 and as low as 10.45. Its 52-week range stood at 8.72–28.90. 

The session therefore saw higher intraday movement without a sharp rise in the volatility index. The technical rating for India VIX remained Neutral. 

US-Iran Tensions Keep Strait of Hormuz Risk in Focus 

Continuing US-Iran tensions remained a key global factor during Tuesday’s session. Iran warned that further US attacks could lead to retaliation against US assets and energy infrastructure in the Gulf. The developments kept the security of the Strait of Hormuz in focus because any disruption could affect global energy supplies. The geopolitical developments also added uncertainty for global financial markets. 

For Indian markets, the issue carried an additional link through crude oil because a sustained disruption in the Gulf could affect the cost and availability of imported energy. This kept geopolitical risk as an important factor during the session. 

Brent Near $97–$98 Keeps Indian Markets Under Pressure 

Crude oil remained one of the clearest market concerns as Brent crude traded around $97–$98 a barrel, while WTI stood around $92–$93. Brent prices were also reported near a six-week high during the session. 

The elevated oil prices added to concerns for India because the country imports roughly 85% of its crude requirements. Higher crude prices can affect the country’s inflation outlook, trade and current account position, currency and corporate margins in oil-sensitive sectors. 

The combination of Middle East tensions and elevated crude prices therefore remained central to the market backdrop on Tuesday. 

Rupee at ₹94.66 Adds to Oil-Linked Currency Pressure 

The rupee also weakened during the session as elevated crude prices and Middle East tensions continued to affect currency markets. The Indian currency opened at around ₹94.49 per US dollar and moved to approximately ₹94.66, weakening by about 10 paise in early trading. 

The currency movement formed another part of the domestic market backdrop. Elevated oil prices and a weaker rupee remained closely linked during the session, adding to concerns around India’s external-sector and inflation dynamics. 

Nifty Below 23,700 Keeps Equity Volatility Elevated 

Indian equities opened lower on Tuesday, with the Nifty slipping below 23,700. By around 9:30 am, the Sensex had fallen more than 400 points, while the Nifty was down around 0.45%. 

The weakness extended across several areas of the market, including realty, IT, financials, large-cap stocks and oil-sensitive companies. The broad market pressure formed an important domestic backdrop for India VIX during the session. 

Analysts also identified 23,800 as an important level for the Nifty. The index remained below this level, while 23,650–23,700 was being watched as support and 23,950–24,000 as resistance. 

Weekly Expiry Adds Short-Term Options Activity On September 8 

Tuesday also marked the Nifty weekly expiry, making derivatives activity another factor during the session. Traders adjusted or closed short-dated positions as the expiry approached, while option premiums and positioning could change rapidly around important strike levels. 

Weekly expiry can also increase the effect of short-term price movements on option pricing. However, the expiry formed part of the broader volatility backdrop rather than acting as the sole reason for the movement in India VIX. 

US Futures and Rate Uncertainty Keep Global Cues Cautious 

Global market cues remained cautious during the Indian session. Early trading showed Dow futures down around 0.9%, while S&P 500 futures fell around 0.4%. Nasdaq futures were close to flat but remained under pressure. 

The backdrop also included uncertainty around US monetary policy. Higher crude prices complicated the inflation outlook, while expectations surrounding a possible US rate hike in September remained an additional source of uncertainty. 

The combination of oil prices, geopolitical developments, inflation concerns and US rate expectations kept the broader global market environment cautious. 

Mixed Asian Markets Limit a Sharper India VIX Rise 

Asian markets did not move uniformly lower on Tuesday. Some markets, including Japan and South Korea, gained, while Hong Kong was weaker. The mixed performance meant that global equity markets did not show a broad, uniform decline during the session. This provided a counterweight to the weaker domestic market and geopolitical concerns. 

The absence of a disorderly global equity sell-off also coincided with the relatively contained movement in India VIX. The index remained close to 11.16 despite the range of risks affecting markets. 

India VIX Stays Far Below Its 28.90 52-Week High 

India VIX’s closing level also remained well below its 52-week high of 28.90, while the 52-week low stood at 8.72. The index’s September seasonality data showed that India VIX had delivered positive returns in 9 of 18 years. 

For September, the historical data showed a maximum positive change of 34.92% in 2018, an average positive change of 17.01%, a maximum negative change of 26.10% in 2009, an average negative change of 9.93%, and an average change of 3.54%. 

The technical levels for Tuesday placed the classic pivot point at 10.92, with resistance levels at 11.58, 11.99 and 12.65, and support levels at 10.51, 9.85 and 9.44. 

Elevated Risks Fail to Trigger a Sharp Volatility Spike 

Despite the combination of US-Iran tensions, Brent near $97–$98, rupee weakness, Nifty below 23,700, global caution and weekly expiry, India VIX remained near 11.16 at the close. 

The session therefore recorded an increase in the index without a major volatility spike. The market faced several sources of uncertainty, but the movement in India VIX remained within the day’s 10.45–11.39 range. 

The closing data also highlights the difference between the live snapshot and the historical series. The live reading at 15:39 IST showed 11.19, up 0.18%, while the historical series showed approximately 11.1575 at the close, representing a daily increase of about 0.68%. 

India VIX closed near 11.16, with geopolitical tensions, crude prices, rupee weakness and softer Indian equities shaping the session. Weekly expiry and global market uncertainty added to the backdrop, while mixed Asian markets and the absence of a disorderly sell-off accompanied the relatively contained volatility movement. 

Source 

• https://www.nseindia.com/reports-indices-historical-vix